2012 Presidential Election Electoral College Map Projection for June 1, 2012.
Revised (5 of 21) Electoral Map Projection of the 2012 presidential election, based on mundane political contest horary: “Obama vs. GOP Nominee: Who will win X – battleground state?” With 270 electoral votes needed to win, the campaign will be fought in the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — a total of 151 electoral votes up for grabs. Based on the latest forecast, the presumptive GOP Nominee Mitt Romney has pulled ahead of the President by an additional 6electoral votes with Neveda going from Blue to Red.
Nevada Will Be The “Tipping Point” State for Romney: If Romney wins all the hardcore and middle red states (based on current polling, not historical data), he has 181 electoral votes (EV). If you also include the barely states and he gets to 243 EV. So if Romney doesn’t win Virginia, he has to win Iowa and a few currently barely blue states. For him, the tipping point state is Nevada, which by the way determines the winner of the Presidental election 96% of the time.
At the beginning of the “Great Recession,” in December 2007 the API Stress Index (the combinned impact for unemployment, bankruptcy and foreclosure) for the state of Nevada was only at a modest 8.21 (an API Stress Index 11 or greater is considered highly stressed: recession). As of May 2012 the API Stress Index for Neveda was at 19.1%!
Democratic nominee President Obama has a 64% probability of winning Nevada according to Intrade. But the composite polls on May 24th show that Neveda is barely Democratic with Obama 48% and Romney 46%, respectively. However, if you consider Neveda’s staggering unemployment rate, its history of voting for Republicans in seven of the last ten presidential elections, its large Mormon population, along with the Neveda’s economic Blackbox forecast (based on the state’s horoscope), the deck is stacked against Obama.