PROJECTIONS TRACK RECORD FOR 2018 MIDTERM ELECTION – HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

Below are the past projections for the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election – HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

CURRENT PROJECTIONS

HOUSE CONTROL

218 Seats Needed for Majority Control

as of November 3, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Sep 13
House Control US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
85.4%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
68%
n/a US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
n/a US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%

as of October 27, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Sep 13
House Control US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
84.5%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
65%
n/a US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
n/a US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%

as of October 25, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Sep 13
House Control US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
83.7%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
66%
n/a US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
n/a US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%

as of October 13, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Sep 13
House Control US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
78.4%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
68%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%

as of October 6, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Sep 13

House Control US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
73.6%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
69%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%

as of September 29, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Sep 13

House Control US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
80.4%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
72%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%

as of September 22, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
House Control US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
80.9%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
72%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%

as of September 13, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
House Control US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
83.1%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
72%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%

as of September 13, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
House Control US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
83.1%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
72%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%

as of September 9, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
House Control US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
76.3%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
69%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean

as of September 7, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
House Control DEM – 76.3% DEM – 69% DEM – Lean


House of Representatives Elections

as of October 27, 2018:

State, District
*incumbent
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Nov 1
Alaska (AK), At Large
Galvin-D vs Young-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
65.4%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
58%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
Arizona (AZ), 1st
O’Halleran*-D vs Rogers-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
88.3%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
80%
Arizona (AZ), 2nd
Kirkpatrick-D vs Peterson-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
96.4%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
92%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
90%
Arizona (AZ), 6th
Malik-D vs Schweikert-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
90.9%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
90%
Arizona (AZ), 8th
Tipirneni-D vs Lesko*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
77.5%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
Arkansas (AR), 2nd
Tucker-D vs Hill*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85.9%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
70%
California (CA), 4th
Morse-D vs McClintock*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
84.8%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85%
California (CA), 10th
Harder-D vs Denham*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
76.8%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
63%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
52%
California (CA), 21st
Cox-D vs Valadao*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
79.5%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
89%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75%
California (CA), 22nd
Janz-D vs Nunes*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
95.4%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60%
California (CA), 24th
Carbajal*-D vs Fareed-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
98.4%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
85%
California (CA), 25th
Hill-D vs Knight*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
62.9%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
51%
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
California (CA), 39th
Cisneros-D vs Kim-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
57.0%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
53%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
California (CA), 45th
Porter-D vs Walters*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
61.3%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
56%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
52%
California (CA), 48th
Rouda-D vs Rohrabacher*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
56.5%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
50%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
California (CA), 49th
Levin-D vs Harkey-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
95.9%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
89%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
50%
California (CA), 50th
Campa-Najjar-D vs Hunter*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
78.1%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
76%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Horary AstroProbability
Colorado (CO), 3rd
Bush-D vs Tipton*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
83.5%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
87%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75%
Colorado (CO), 6th
Crow-D vs Coffman*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
87.9%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
85%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
60%
Connecticut (CT), 5th
Hayes-D vs Santos-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
97.3%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
95%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
60%
Florida (FL), 6th
Soderberg-D vs Waltz-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
74.5%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
65%
Florida (FL), 15th
Carlson-D vs Spano-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
57.9%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
64%
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
55%
Florida (FL), 16th
Shapiro-D vs Buchanan*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
86.1%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
Florida (FL), 18th
Baer-D vs Mast*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
91.0%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
65%
Florida (FL), 25th
Flores-D vs Diaz-Balart*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
72.5%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
Florida (FL), 26th
Mucarsel-Powell-D vs Curbelo*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
54.8%
50/50 50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Florida (FL), 27th
Shalala-D vs Salazar-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
84.4%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
64%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
51%
Georgia (GA), 6th
McBath-D vs Handel*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
61.2%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
54%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60%
Georgia (GA), 7th
Bourdeaux-D vs Woodall*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
87.7%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
55%
Illinois (IL), 6th
Casten-D vs Roskam*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52.1%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
66%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Illinois (IL), 12th
Kelly-D vs Bost*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
72.4%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
88%
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Illinois (IL), 13th
Londrigan-D vs Davis*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
72.4%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
70%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75%
Illinois (IL), 14th
Underwood-D vs Hultgren*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
61.1%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
56%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75%
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Horary AstroProbability
Indiana (IN), 9th
Watson-D vs Hollingsworth*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
82.7%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85%
Iowa (IA), 1st
Finkenauer-D vs Blum*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
95.3%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
87%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
65%
Iowa (IA), 3rd
Axne-D vs Young*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
69.4%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
62%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Iowa (IA), 4th
Scholten-D vs King*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85.9%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85%
Kansas (KS), 2nd
Davis-D vs Watkins-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
61.8%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
53%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60%
Kansas (KS), 3rd
Davids-D vs Yoder*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
84.5%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
72%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
50%
Kentucky (KT), 6th
McGrath-D vs Barr*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
51.4%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
56%
50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
55%
Maine (ME), 2nd
Golden-D vs Poliquin*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
62.8%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
52%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
55%
Michigan (MI), 1st
Morgan-D vs Bergman*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
92.4%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
Michigan (MI), 6th
Longjohn-D vs Upton*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
82.4%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
55%
Michigan (MI), 7th
Driskell-D vs Walberg*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
58.9%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
81%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
70%
Michigan (MI), 8th
Slotkin-D vs Bishop*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
57.9%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
56%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
55%
Michigan (MI), 11th
Stevens-D vs Epstein-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
78.3%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
83%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
65%
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Horary AstroProbability
Minnesota (MN), 1st
Feehan-D vs Hagedorn-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
55.0%
50/50 50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
65%
Minnesota (MN), 2nd
Craig-D vs Lewis*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
85.6%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
81%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
70%
Minnesota (MN), 3rd
Phillips-D vs Paulsen*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
84.1%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
78%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
60%
Minnesota (MN), 7th
Peterson*-D vs Hughes-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
93.2%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
82%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
75%
Minnesota (MN), 8th
Radinovich-D vs Stauber-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
81.1%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
86%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
55%
Missouri (MO), 2nd
VanOstran-D vs Wagner*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
83.8%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
Montana (MT) – AL
Williams-D vs Gianforte*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
63.4%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
67%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
Nebraska (NE), 2nd
Eastman-D vs Bacon*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
58.8%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
Nevada (NV), 3rd
Lee-D vs Tarkanian-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
74.6%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
70%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
60%
Nevada (NV), 4th
Horsford-D vs Hardy-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
83.0%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
83%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
60%
New Hampshire (NH), 1st
Sullivan-D vs Sanborn-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
84.4%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
65%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
75%
New Jersey (NJ), 3rd
Kim-D vs MacArthur*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
54.2%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
55%
New Jersey (NJ), 4th
Welle-D vs Smith-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
93.2%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
65%
New Jersey (NJ), 5th
Gottheimer*-D vs McCann-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
98.7%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
65%
New Jersey (NJ), 7th
Malinowski-D vs Lance*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
77.3%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
74%
50/50 50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%
New Jersey (NJ), 11th
Sherrill-D vs Webber-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
84.5%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
87%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
55%
New Mexico (NM), 2nd
Small-D vs Herrell-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
57.2%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
58%
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
55%
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Horary AstroProbability
New York (NY), 1st
Gershon-D vs Zeldin*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
93.3%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
90%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
New York (NY), 2nd
Shirley-D vs King-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
72.6%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely