PROJECTIONS TRACK RECORD FOR 2018 MIDTERM ELECTION – SENATE

Below are the Past Projections for the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election – SENATE

CURRENT PROJECTIONS

SENATE CONTROL – Previous Projections

51 Seats Needed for Majority Control

as of November 1, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Sep 12
Senate Control US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85.4%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
88%
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75%

as of October 25, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Sep 12
Senate Control US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
82.8%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
87%
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75%

as of October 10, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Sep 12
Senate Control US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80.5%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
84%
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75%

as of October 3, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Sep 12
Senate Control US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
76.7%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
76%
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75%

as of September 18, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Senate Control US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
69.3%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
72%
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75%

as of September 12, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Senate Control US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
67.7%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
73%
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75%

as of September 9, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Senate Control n/a US_Republican_Party_Logo
REP – 75%
US_Republican_Party_Logo
REP- Likely

as of September 7, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Senate Control n/a REP – 75% n/a n/a n/a

 




SENATE ELECTIONS – Previous Projections

as of November 1, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability

Arizona (AZ)
Sinema-D vs McSally-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
60.1%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
56%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Florida (FL)
Nelson*-D vs Scott-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
71.0%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
57%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Indiana (IN)
Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
70.4%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
51%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election
Smith*-D vs Housley-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
89.2%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
84%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
50%
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election
Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
87.4%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
91%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60%
Missouri (MO)
McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
59.6%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
Montana (MT)
Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
84.6%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
64%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
64%
Nebraska (NE)
Raybould-D vs Fischer*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
97.9%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
96%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85%
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Horary – AstroProbability
Nevada (NV)
Rosen-D vs Heller*-R
 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
55.5%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
New Jersey (NJ)
Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
90.5%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
79%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
55%
North Dakota (ND)
Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75.0%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
84%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
50%
Ohio (OH)
Brown*-D vs Renacci-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
96.1%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
88%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
85%
Pennsylvania (PA)
Casey*-D vs Barletta-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
96.8%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
93%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
90%
Tennessee (TN)
Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
83.9%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
82%
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60%
Texas (TX)
O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
79.0%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
87%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
56%
West Virginia (WV)
Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
86.9%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
79%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
58%
Wisconsin (WI)
Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
98.2%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
91%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
58%

as of October 25, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability

Arizona (AZ)
Sinema-D vs McSally-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
62.2%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
63%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Florida (FL)
Nelson*-D vs Scott-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
73.4%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
57%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Indiana (IN)
Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
71.1%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
57%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election
Smith*-D vs Housley-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
89.0%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
82%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
50%
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election
Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
87.8%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
91%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60%
Missouri (MO)
McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
58.0%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
64%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
Montana (MT)
Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
86.6%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
64%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
64%
Nebraska (NE)
Raybould-D vs Fischer*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
96.7%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
96%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85%
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Horary – AstroProbability
Nevada (NV)
Rosen-D vs Heller*-R
 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60.3%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
55%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
New Jersey (NJ)
Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
90.5%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
80%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
55%
North Dakota (ND)
Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
71.1%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
86%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
50%
Ohio (OH)
Brown*-D vs Renacci-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
96.7%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
89%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
85%
Pennsylvania (PA)
Casey*-D vs Barletta-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
97.9%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
93%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
90%
Tennessee (TN)
Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
76.1%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
82%
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60%
Texas (TX)
O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
79.2%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
56%
West Virginia (WV)
Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
89.3%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
75%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
58%
Wisconsin (WI)
Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
97.7%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
90%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
58%

as of October 10, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability

Arizona (AZ)
Sinema-D vs McSally-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
63.3%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
53%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Florida (FL)
Nelson*-D vs Scott-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
61.1%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Indiana (IN)
Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
77.0%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election
Smith*-D vs Housley-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
89.5%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
87%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
50%
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election
Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
83.7%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
91%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60%
Missouri (MO)
McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
55.8%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
62%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
Montana (MT)
Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
84.3%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
64%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
64%
Nebraska (NE)
Raybould-D vs Fischer*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
96.7%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
94%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85%
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Horary – AstroProbability
Nevada (NV)
Rosen-D vs Heller*-R
 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51.7%
50/50 50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
New Jersey (NJ)
Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
92.2%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
78%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
55%
North Dakota (ND)
Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
68.0%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
50%
Ohio (OH)
Brown*-D vs Renacci-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
96.2%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
89%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
85%
Pennsylvania (PA)
Casey*-D vs Barletta-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
97.6%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
90%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
90%
Tennessee (TN)
Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
79.1%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
83%
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60%
Texas (TX)
O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
74.8%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
79%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
56%
West Virginia (WV)
Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
88.8%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
79%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
58%
Wisconsin (WI)
Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
97.3%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
87%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
58%

as of October 3, 2018:

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Oct 9
Arizona (AZ)
Sinema-D vs McSally-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
65.8%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
58%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Florida (FL)
Nelson*-D vs Scott-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
60.9%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
55%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Indiana (IN)
Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
76.1%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
52%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election
Smith*-D vs Housley-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
89.0%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
83%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
50%
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election
Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
83.4%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
91%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60%
Missouri (MO)
McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
60.8%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
Montana (MT)
Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
81.4%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
62%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
64%
Nebraska (NE)
Raybould-D vs Fischer-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
96.8%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
92%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85%
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Horary – AstroProbability
Nevada (NV)
Rosen-D vs Heller*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
53.1%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
65%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51%
New Jersey (NJ)
Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
89.4%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
76%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
55%
North Dakota (ND)
Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
68.0%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
73%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
50%
Ohio (OH)
Brown*-D vs Renacci-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
95.1%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
88%