Accuracy Track Record for the 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election

State-By-State Accuracy Track Record for the U.S. Presidential General Election on November 6, 2012:

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver William Stickevers, Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
100% correct 88% correct
51 projections 51 projections
51 correct  45 correct 
0 incorrect red-x 6 incorrect red-x

FiveThirtyEight Projection Map
(as of November 6, 2012)



Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Projection Map
(as of November 6, 2012, 11:15 AM EST)

Who will win the presidency?
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability [as of Nov. 6, 2012, 11:15 AM EST]:
PREDICTION: Romney 50% red-x

2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Final Results

OBAMA – 65,446,032 (51%)
ROMNEY – 60,589,084 (49%)

Below are projections for the 2012 U.S. Presidential Election as of November 6, 2012.

*Battleground States

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Alabama Romney  Romney 
Alaska Romney  Romney 
Arkansas Romney  Romney 
California Obama  Obama
Colorado* Obama  Romney red-x
Connecticut Obama  Obama
Delaware Obama  Obama
District of Columbia Obama  Obama
Florida* Obama  Romney red-x
Georgia Romney  Romney 
Hawaii Obama  Obama
Idaho Romney  Romney 
Illinois Obama  Obama
Indiana Romney  Romney 
Iowa Obama  Romney red-x
Kansas Romney  Romney 
Kentucky Romney  Romney 
Louisiana Romney  Romney 
Maine Obama  Obama
Maryland Obama  Obama
Massachusetts Obama  Obama
Michigan Obama Obama 
Minnesota Obama  Obama 
Mississippi Romney  Romney 
Missouri Romney  Romney 
Montana Romney  Romney 
Nebraska Romney  Romney 
Nevada* Obama  Obama 
New Hampshire Obama  Romney red-x
New Jersey Obama  Obama
New Mexico Obama  Obama
New York Obama  Obama
North Carolina* Romney Romney 
North Dakota Romney  Romney 
Ohio* Obama  Romney red-x
Oklahoma Romney  Romney 
Oregon Obama  Obama
Pennsylvania* Obama  Obama 
Rhode Island Obama  Obama
South Carolina Romney  Romney 
South Dakota Romney  Romney 
Tennessee Romney  Romney 
Texas Romney  Romney 
Utah Romney  Romney 
Vermont Obama  Obama
Virginia* Obama  Romney red-x
Washington Obama  Obama
West Virginia Romney  Romney 
Wisconsin* Obama Romney
Wyoming Romney  Romney