Projections Accuracy Track Record for 2016 Presidential Election Primaries
Track Record for 99 Primary Elections as of June 15, 2016:

FiveThirtyEight |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers |
89% correct |
88% correct |
88% correct |
87% correct |
57 projections |
97 projections |
42 projections |
98 projections |
51 correct  |
85 correct  |
37 correct  |
85 correct  |
6 incorrect  |
11 incorrect  |
4 incorrect  |
12 incorrect  |
42 no projection given |
2 no projection given |
57 no projection given |
1 no projection given |
Below are current projections for upcoming Republican and Democratic primaries and caucuses, as well as the track record for past elections.

Included probabilities:
-
FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver
-
PredictIt.com
-
Political Prediction Market (CNN.com)
-
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability*
*AstroProbability: a composite set of mundane astrology forecasting methods.
February 1
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Iowa |
Clinton 67%
Trump 46% |
Clinton 58%
Trump 60% |
Clinton 55%
Trump |
February 9
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
New Hampshire |
Sanders 99%
Trump 69% |
Sanders 90%
Trump 90% |
Sanders 80%
Trump 60% |
February 20
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Nevada (D) |
n/a |
Clinton 57% |
Clinton 50% |
South Carolina (R) |
Trump 76% |
Trump 93% |
Trump |
February 23
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Nevada (R) |
n/a |
Trump 74% |
Trump |
February 27
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
South Carolina (D) |
Clinton 99% |
n/a |
Clinton 60% |
March 1
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Alabama |
Clinton 99%
Trump 94% |
Clinton 86%
Trump 97% |
Clinton 80%
Trump 85% |
Alaska (R) |
n/a |
Trump 90% |
Trump 90% |
Arkansas |
Clinton 97%
Trump 52% |
Clinton 86%
Trump 83% |
Clinton 80%
Trump 50% |
Colorado (D) |
n/a |
Sanders 75% |
Sanders 75% |
Georgia |
Clinton 99%
Trump 88% |
Clinton 99%
n/a |
Clinton 90%
Trump 80% |
Massachusetts |
Clinton 94%
Trump 99% |
Sanders 72%
Trump 98% |
Dem n/a
Trump 98% |
Minnesota |
n/a |
Sanders 70%
Trump 70% |
Sanders 80%
Trump 50% |
Oklahoma |
Clinton 51%
Trump 68% |
Clinton 80%
Trump 88% |
Clinton 80%
Trump 55% |
Tennessee |
Clinton 99%
Trump 92% |
Clinton 80%
Trump 95% |
Clinton 85%
Trump 80% |
Texas |
Clinton 99%
Cruz 87% |
Clinton 81%
Cruz 84% |
Clinton 70%
Cruz 85% |
Vermont |
Sanders 99%
Rep n/a |
Sanders 98%
Trump 95% |
Sanders 90%
Trump 90% |
Virginia |
Clinton 99%
Trump 69% |
Clinton 75%
Trump 91% |
Clinton 70%
Trump 50% |
March 5
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Kansas |
(D) n/a
Trump 51% |
Sanders 91%
Cruz 99% |
Sanders 99%
Cruz 60% |
Kentucky (R) |
n/a |
Cruz 63% |
Trump 53% |
Louisiana |
Clinton 99%
Trump 96% |
Clinton 99%
Trump 85% |
Clinton 99%
Trump 90% |
Maine (R) |
n/a |
Cruz 87% |
Trump 53% |
Nebraska (D) |
n/a |
Sanders 93% |
Sanders 90% |
March 6
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Maine (D) |
n/a |
Sanders 95% |
Sanders 90% |
Puerto Rico (R) |
n/a |
Rubio 66% |
Rubio 60% |
As of March 7, 2016:
March 8
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Hawaii (R) |
n/a |
Rubio 45% |
n/a |
Rubio 45% |
Idaho (R) |
n/a |
Cruz 60% |
Cruz 71% |
Cruz 55% |
Michigan |
Clinton 99%
Trump 90% |
Clinton 93%
Trump 91% |
Clinton 92%
Trump 86% |
Clinton 90%
Trump 85% |
Mississippi |
Clinton 99%
(R) n/a |
Clinton 99%
Trump 83% |
Clinton 99%
Trump 70% |
Clinton 95%
Trump 70% |
as of March 14, 2016:
March 15
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Florida |
Clinton 99%
Trump 97% |
Clinton 94%
Trump 93% |
Clinton 98%
Trump 96% |
Clinton 90%
Trump 90% |
Illinois |
Clinton 88%
Trump 62% |
Clinton 53%
Trump 72% |
Clinton 55%
Trump 87% |
Clinton 52%
Trump 80% |
Missouri |
Clinton 54%
Rep: n/a |
Sanders 68%
Trump 54% |
Sanders 56%
Trump 80% |
Sanders 50%
Trump 52% |
North Carolina |
Clinton 99%
Trump 88% |
Clinton 92%
Trump 87% |
Clinton 94%
Trump 85% |
Clinton 95%
Trump 60% |
Ohio |
Clinton 95%
Kasich 86% |
Clinton 60%
Kasich 72% |
Clinton 52%
Kasich 84% |
Clinton 50%
Kasich 52% |
as of March 20, 2016:
March 22
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Arizona |
Dem n/a
Trump 84% |
Clinton 90%
Trump 90% |
Clinton 92%
Trump 84% |
Clinton 90%
Trump 85% |
Idaho (D) |
n/a |
Sanders 81% |
n/a |
Sanders 80% |
Utah |
n/a |
Sanders 75%
Cruz 96% |
Sanders 77%
Cruz 96% |
Sanders 80%
Cruz 90% |
as of March 25, 2016:
March 26
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Alaska (D) |
n/a |
Sanders 93% |
n/a |
Sanders 70% |
Hawaii (D) |
n/a |
Sanders 73% |
n/a |
Sanders 60% |
Washington (D) |
n/a |
Sanders 97% |
n/a |
Sanders 85% |
as of April 4, 2016:
April 5
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Wisconsin |
Sanders 73%
Cruz 91% |
Sanders 88%
Cruz 82% |
Sanders 98%
Cruz 96% |
Sanders 50%
Trump 50% |
as of April 7, 2016:
April 9
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Wyoming (D) |
n/a |
Sanders 98% |
n/a |
Sanders 90% |
as of April 10, 2016:
April 19
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
New York |
Clinton 97%
Trump 99% |
Clinton 86%
Trump 96% |
Clinton 77%
Trump 99% |
Clinton 80%
Trump 90% |
as of April 25, 2016:
April 26
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Connecticut |
Clinton 76%
Trump 99% |
Clinton 81%
Trump 97% |
Clinton 89%
Trump 99% |
Clinton 90%
Trump 90% |
Delaware |
n/a |
Clinton 95%
Trump 97% |
Clinton 92%
Trump 99% |
Clinton 90%
Trump 90% |
Maryland |
Clinton 97%
Trump 99% |
Clinton 97%
Trump 94% |
Clinton 98%
Trump 99% |
Clinton 90%
Trump 90% |
Pennsylvania |
Clinton 99%
Trump 99% |
Clinton 96%
Trump 96% |
Clinton 90%
Trump 97% |
Clinton 70%
Trump 80% |
Rhode Island |
n/a |
Sander 55%
Trump 97% |
Clinton 85%
Trump 98% |
Clinton 70%
Trump 90% |
as of May 2, 2016:
May 3
|
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
|
PredictIt
|
Political Prediction Market (CNN)
|
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/27/16) |
Indiana |
Clinton 91%
Trump 83% |
Clinton 76%
Trump 95% |
Clinton 72%
Trump 92% |
Clinton 80%
Trump 85% |
as of May 9, 2016:
May 10
|
FiveThirtyEight |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (5/5/16) |
Nebraska (R) |
n/a |
Trump 96% |
Cruz 94% |
Trump 80% |
West Virginia |
Sanders 63%
Rep n/a |
Sanders 87%
Trump 99% |
Sanders 72%
Trump 99% |
Sanders 90%
Trump 90% |
as of May 16, 2016:
May 17
|
FiveThirtyEight |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
Kentucky (D) |
n/a |
Clinton 61% |
n/a |
Clinton 50% |
Oregon |
n/a |
Sanders 82%
Trump 99% |
Sanders 80%
Trump 86% |
Sanders 80%
Trump 80% |
May 24
|
FiveThirtyEight |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16) |
Washington (R) |
n/a |
Trump 99% |
Trump 70% |
Trump 85% |
as of June 6, 2016:
June 7
|
FiveThirtyEight |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
California |
Clinton 90%
Trump 97% |
Clinton 73%
Trump 99% |
Clinton 61%
Trump 92% |
Clinton 70%
Trump 90% |
Montana |
n/a |
Sanders 97%
Trump 99% |
Sanders 80%
Cruz 93% |
Sanders 55%
Trump 80% |
New Jersey |
Clinton 99%
Rep n/a |
Clinton 97%
Trump 99% |
Clinton 98%
Trump 99% |
Clinton 90%
Trump 95% |
New Mexico |
n/a |
Clinton 86%
Trump 99% |
Clinton 78%
Trump 77% |
Clinton 80%
Trump 85% |
North Dakota (D) |
n/a |
Sanders 96% |
n/a |
Sanders 55% |
South Dakota |
n/a |
Sanders 86%
Trump 99% |
Sanders 82%
Cruz 93% |
Sanders 50%
Trump 80% |
June 14
|
FiveThirtyEight |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16) |
District of Columbia (D) |
n/a |
Clinton 97% |
n/a |
Clinton 95% |
July 18-21
|
FiveThirtyEight |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16) |
Republican National Convention |
|
Trump 92% |
n/a |
Trump 85% |
July 25-28
|
FiveThirtyEight |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16) |
Democratic National Convention |
|
Clinton 92% |
Clinton 97% |
Clinton 95% |
as of July 21, 2016:
November 8
|
FiveThirtyEight |
PredictIt |
Political Prediction Market (CNN) |
William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* |
U.S. Presidential Election |
Clinton 60.2% |
Clinton 66% |
Clinton 68% |
|
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