NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. economy will not recover until the end of this year, and even then growth will remain meek and vulnerable to higher interest rates and commodity prices, economist Nouriel Roubini said on Tuesday. Roubini, who rose to prominence for predicting the global credit crisis, tore down the “green shoots” theory that a rebound is imminent,
June 8, 2009. Note: Bankruptcy filings are apt to exceed the 2005 number eventually, given data like Jobs Contract 17th Straight Month; Unemployment Rate Soars to 9.4%. The USA Today is reporting Bankruptcy filings rise to 6,000 a day as job losses take toll. Last month commercial bankruptcy filings hit 376 a day, up from 255 in May 2008. Hartmarx,
According to the Associated Press more than 90 percent of economists predict the U.S. recession will end this year. About 74 percent of economic forecasters expect the recession — which started in December 2007 and is the longest since World War II, to end in the third quarter of 2009. Another 19 percent predict the turning point will come in the final three months of this year, and the remaining 7 percent believe the recession will end in the first quarter of 2010. Even Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and NABE forecasters say the recession will end later this year, barring any new shocks to the economy.
However many consumers and investors are skeptical of such optimistic forecast. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of 1,500 adults for May 27th state that 79% believe that the U.S. economy in a recession with only 8% stating no, and 14% unsure. Another survey showed that 57% of consumers rated the U.S. economy as poor with fewer than 10% saying it is good, or excellent. Finally the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds that 58% say the nation is moving down the wrong track.
So the question is “Will the U.S. recession end by the end of the third quarter of 2009 as predicted by most economists”?
These predictions were originally posted on my website http://www.williamstickevers.com between April 3 and May 26, 2009. Economy: U.S. Great Depression II: The current U.S. recession will turn into a second Great Depression by December 2010. (April 3, 2009) NOTE: The U.S. economy entered a recession in December 2007, according to a committee of economists at the private National Bureau of