WILLIAM STICKEVERS

Accuracy Track Record for the Closely Contested Senate and House Races of the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election on November 6, 2018:

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver	PredictIt	William Stickevers, Political Contest Horary Team
89% correct	87% correct	81% correct
121 projections	91 projections	121 projections
108 correct	79 correct	98 correct
13 incorrect	12 incorrect	23 incorrect

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability*
and the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election

Updated November 6, 2018 at 9:10am PST

Overview

This page lists the predictions for the party to control the Senate and House after the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election, as well as predictions for the outcome of the Closely Contested District and State Elections for House and Senate seats from:

• Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight (Senate | House)
• PredictIt (Senate | House)
• CNN Politics
• Politico
• Real Clear Politics (Senate | House)
• Political Contest Horary AstroProbabiliy generated by a team of political contest horary astrologers led by mundane astrologer William Stickevers

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability*

Each horary question will be focused on a specific race, as well as control of the Senate and House of Representatives.

This page will be updated every week leading up to the November 6th Midterm Election.

*AstroProbability: a composite set of mundane astrology forecasting methods.
Margin of Error is +/- 1.9% with a 95% level of confidence.

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Accuracy Track Record 2008-2016:

416 predictions / 358 correct = 86% Accuracy Track Record

• Accurately predicted the outcome of the 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election
• 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College – 92% correct
• 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Elections – 87% correct
• 2014 U.S. Midterm “Too Close To Call” Elections – 83% correct
• 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College – 88% correct
• 2010 U.S. Midterm “Toss-Up” Senate and House Elections – 80% correct
• Accurately predicted the outcome of the 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election
• 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Electoral College – 96% correct
• Accurately predicted the outcome of the 2008 Democratic Primary Nomination
• 2008 U.S. Democratic Primary “Too Close To Call” Elections – 60% correct

Political Contest Horary Dream Team led by William Stickevers:

• Joyce Lambert (2016, 2018)
• Justine M. Rowinski (2016, 2018)
• Norma Jean Ream (2018)
• Alan L. Lin (2018)
• Jerry Ketel (2018)

Read about the Political Contest Horary Dream Team Astrologers.

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Senate

AstroProbability Projection for the November 6th 2018 U.S. Midterm Election

Senate Control

51 Seats Needed for Majority

as of November 5, 2018:
Record of the Previous Senate Projections here

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sep 12
Senate Control	REP 83.2%	REP 87%	n/a	REP Likely	n/a	REP 75%

Senate – Closely Contested Elections

as of November 5, 2018:
Record of the Previous Senate Projections here

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Arizona (AZ) Sinema-D vs McSally-R	DEM 60.9%	REP 57%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Florida (FL) Nelson*-D vs Scott-R	DEM 70.8%	DEM 58%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Indiana (IN) Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R	DEM 70.8%	DEM 52%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R	DEM 91.2%	DEM 87%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM 50%
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R	REP 87.9%	REP 83%	REP	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 60%
Missouri (MO) McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R	DEM 57.0%	REP 59%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Montana (MT) Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R	DEM 78.8%	DEM 63%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 64%
Nebraska (NE) Raybould-D vs Fischer*-R	REP 97.9%	REP 97%	REP	REP	REP	REP 85%
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary – AstroProbability
Nevada (NV) Rosen-D vs Heller*-R	DEM 55.7%	DEM 63%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
New Jersey (NJ) Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R	DEM 94.5%	DEM 83%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 55%
North Dakota (ND) Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R	REP 74.1%	REP 85%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 50%
Ohio (OH) Brown*-D vs Renacci-R	DEM 96.8%	DEM 90%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM 85%
Pennsylvania (PA) Casey*-D vs Barletta-R	DEM 96.8%	DEM 96%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 90%
Tennessee (TN) Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R	REP 80.3%	REP 83%	50/50	REP Lean	50/50	REP 60%
Texas (TX) O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R	REP 77.4%	REP 78%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 56%
West Virginia (WV) Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R	DEM 87.6%	DEM 76%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 58%
Wisconsin (WI) Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R	DEM 97.7%	DEM 92%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM 58%

Record of the Previous Senate Projections here.

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House of Representatives

AstroProbability Projection for the November 6th 2018 U.S. Midterm Election

House Control

218 Seats Needed for Majority Control

as of November 6, 2018 at 9:10am PST:
Record of the Previous House Projections here

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
House Control	DEM 88.0%	DEM 74%	n/a	DEM Lean	n/a	REP 51%

House of Representatives – Closely Contested Elections

as of November 6, 2018 at 9:10am PST:
Record of the Previous House Projections here

State, District *incumbent	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Nov 1
Alaska (AK), At Large Galvin-D vs Young-R	REP 65.8%	REP 74%	REP	REP Lean	50/50	REP 80%
Arizona (AZ), 1st O’Halleran*-D vs Rogers-R	DEM 89.1%		DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 80%
Arizona (AZ), 2nd Kirkpatrick-D vs Peterson-R	DEM 96.6%	DEM 98%	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 90%
Arizona (AZ), 6th Malik-D vs Schweikert-R	REP 90.8%		REP Likely	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 90%
Arizona (AZ), 8th Tipirneni-D vs Lesko*-R	REP 77.4%		REP Likely	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 80%
Arkansas (AR), 2nd Tucker-D vs Hill*-R	REP 85.9%		REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Likely	REP 70%
California (CA), 4th Morse-D vs McClintock*-R	REP 84.8%		REP Likely	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 85%
California (CA), 10th Harder-D vs Denham*-R	DEM 77.7%	DEM 60%	50/50	50/50	50/50	DEM 52%
California (CA), 21st Cox-D vs Valadao*-R	REP 79.1%	REP 82%	REP Likely	REP Lean	REP Likely	REP 75%
California (CA), 22nd Janz-D vs Nunes*-R	REP 95.4%	REP 88%		REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 60%
California (CA), 24th Carbajal*-D vs Fareed-R	DEM 98.4%		DEM	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 85%
California (CA), 25th Hill-D vs Knight*-R	DEM 64.0%	DEM 51%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
California (CA), 39th Cisneros-D vs Kim-R	DEM 58.3%	DEM 54%	50/50	DEM Lean	50/50	REP 52%
California (CA), 45th Porter-D vs Walters*-R	DEM 62.7%	DEM 62%	50/50	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 52%
California (CA), 48th Rouda-D vs Rohrabacher*-R	DEM 56.5%	DEM 49%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
California (CA), 49th Levin-D vs Harkey-R	DEM 96.0%	DEM 88%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 50%
California (CA), 50th Campa-Najjar-D vs Hunter*-R	REP 77.9%	REP 78%	REP Likely	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 80%
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary AstroProbability
Colorado (CO), 3rd Bush-D vs Tipton*-R	REP 80.1%	REP 92%	REP	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 75%
Colorado (CO), 6th Crow-D vs Coffman*-R	DEM 88.6%	DEM 82%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 60%
Connecticut (CT), 5th Hayes-D vs Santos-R	DEM 97.5%	DEM 98%	DEM	DEM Likely		DEM 60%
Florida (FL), 6th Soderberg-D vs Waltz-R	REP 74.0%		REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Likely	REP 65%
Florida (FL), 15th Carlson-D vs Spano-R	REP 57.5%	REP 70%	50/50	REP Lean	50/50	REP 55%
Florida (FL), 16th Shapiro-D vs Buchanan*-R	REP 85.9%		REP Likely	REP Likely	REP Lean	REP 80%
Florida (FL), 18th Baer-D vs Mast*-R	REP 91.2%		REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 65%
Florida (FL), 25th Flores-D vs Diaz-Balart*-R	REP 72.3%		REP Likely	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 80%
Florida (FL), 26th Mucarsel-Powell-D vs Curbelo*-R	DEM 56.2%	50/50	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Florida (FL), 27th Shalala-D vs Salazar-R	DEM 85.1%	DEM 70%	50/50	50/50	DEM Lean	DEM 51%
Georgia (GA), 6th McBath-D vs Handel*-R	REP 50.6%	REP 53%	REP Lean	REP Lean	50/50	REP 60%
Georgia (GA), 7th Bourdeaux-D vs Woodall*-R	REP 84.0%	REP 85%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 55%
Illinois (IL), 6th Casten-D vs Roskam*-R	REP 51.5%	DEM 62%	50/50	DEM Lean	50/50	REP 52%
Illinois (IL), 12th Kelly-D vs Bost*-R	REP 71.8%	REP 77%	50/50	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 52%
Illinois (IL), 13th Londrigan-D vs Davis*-R	REP 71.9%	REP 84%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 75%
Illinois (IL), 14th Underwood-D vs Hultgren*-R	DEM 69.5%	DEM 69%	REP Lean	DEM Lean	50/50	REP 75%
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary AstroProbability
Indiana (IN), 9th Watson-D vs Hollingsworth*-R	REP 83.3%		REP Likely	REP Likely		REP 85%
Iowa (IA), 1st Finkenauer-D vs Blum*-R	DEM 95.5%	DEM 85%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 65%
Iowa (IA), 3rd Axne-D vs Young*-R	DEM 70.1%	DEM 69%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Iowa (IA), 4th Scholten-D vs King*-R	REP 85.1%	REP 83%	REP Likely	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 85%
Kansas (KS), 2nd Davis-D vs Watkins-R	DEM 62.2%	DEM 55%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 60%
Kansas (KS), 3rd Davids-D vs Yoder*-R	DEM 84.9%	DEM 63%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	REP 50%
Kentucky (KT), 6th McGrath-D vs Barr*-R	REP 54.3%	REP 60%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 55%
Maine (ME), 2nd Golden-D vs Poliquin*-R	DEM 63.3%	DEM 64%	50/50	DEM Lean	50/50	REP 55%
*Mr. Poliquin led by about 2,000 votes after an initial round of counting in the four-way race. But he didn’t clear 50% support, which the ranked-choice process requires for a candidate to win outright. Two independents in the race collectively got about 8% of the vote. Maine is the first state in the nation to begin using ranked-choice voting: Instead of selecting just one candidate in a race, voters rank them in order of their preference, and those rankings are used to decide the contest if no candidate receives a majority at the outset.
Michigan (MI), 1st Morgan-D vs Bergman*-R	REP 92.9%		REP Likely	REP Likely		REP 80%
Michigan (MI), 6th Longjohn-D vs Upton*-R	REP 77.7%		REP Likely	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 55%
Michigan (MI), 7th Driskell-D vs Walberg*-R	REP 58.2%	REP 81%	REP Likely	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 70%
Michigan (MI), 8th Slotkin-D vs Bishop*-R	DEM 67.1%	DEM 69%	50/50	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 55%
Michigan (MI), 11th Stevens-D vs Epstein-R	DEM 79.5%	DEM 77%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 65%
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary AstroProbability
Minnesota (MN), 1st Feehan-D vs Hagedorn-R	DEM 55.3%	DEM 54%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 65%
Minnesota (MN), 2nd Craig-D vs Lewis*-R	DEM 86.4%	DEM 75%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 70%
Minnesota (MN), 3rd Phillips-D vs Paulsen*-R	DEM 84.9%	DEM 85%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 60%
Minnesota (MN), 7th Peterson*-D vs Hughes-R	DEM 93.3%	DEM 73%	DEM	DEM Likely	50/50	DEM 75%
Minnesota (MN), 8th Radinovich-D vs Stauber-R	REP 80.5%	REP 86%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 55%
Missouri (MO), 2nd VanOstran-D vs Wagner*-R	REP 83.7%		REP Likely	REP Lean	REP Likely	REP 80%
Montana (MT) – AL Williams-D vs Gianforte*-R	REP 76.4%	REP 82%	REP Likely	REP Lean	50/50	REP 80%
Nebraska (NE), 2nd Eastman-D vs Bacon*-R	REP 58.3%	REP 72%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 80%
Nevada (NV), 3rd Lee-D vs Tarkanian-R	DEM 88.2%	DEM 85%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 60%
Nevada (NV), 4th Horsford-D vs Hardy-R	DEM 87.7%	DEM 93%	DEM Lean	DEM Likely	50/50	DEM 60%
New Hampshire (NH), 1st Pappas-D vs Edwards-R	DEM 84.3%	DEM 86%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 75%
New Jersey (NJ), 3rd Kim-D vs MacArthur*-R	DEM 55.1%	DEM 70%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 55%
New Jersey (NJ), 4th Welle-D vs Smith-R	REP 93.1%		REP	REP Likely		REP 65%
New Jersey (NJ), 5th Gottheimer*-D vs McCann-R	DEM 98.7%		DEM	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 65%
New Jersey (NJ), 7th Malinowski-D vs Lance*-R	DEM 78.1%	DEM 80%	50/50	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 53%
New Jersey (NJ), 11th Sherrill-D vs Webber-R	DEM 85.6%	DEM 88%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 55%
New Mexico (NM), 2nd Small-D vs Herrell-R	REP 55.6%	DEM 55%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 55%
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary AstroProbability
New York (NY), 1st Gershon-D vs Zeldin*-R	REP 93.3%	REP 88%	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP Lean	REP 80%
New York (NY), 2nd Shirley-D vs King-R	REP 72.4%		REP	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 80%
New York (NY), 11th Rose-D vs Donovan*-R	REP 76.4%	REP 83%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 58%
New York (NY), 19th Delgado-D vs Faso*-R	DEM 61.6%	DEM 56%	50/50	DEM Lean	50/50	REP 51%
New York (NY), 22nd Brindisi-D vs Tenney*-R	DEM 52.2%	REP 52%	50/50	50/50	50/50	DEM 60%
New York (NY), 24th Balter-D vs Katko*-R	REP 81.8%	REP 89%	REP Likely	REP Lean	REP Likely	REP 85%
New York (NY), 27th McMurray-D vs Collins*-R	REP 75.6%	REP 67%	REP Likely	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 53%
North Carolina (NC), 2nd Coleman-D vs Holding-R	REP 84.5%	REP 83%	REP Lean	50/50	REP Lean	REP 55%
North Carolina (NC), 8th McNeill-D vs Hudson*-R	REP 87.6%		REP		REP Likely	REP 90%
North Carolina (NC), 9th McCready-D vs Harris-R	REP 52.6%	DEM 61%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 55%
North Carolina (NC), 13th Manning-D vs Budd*-R	REP 61.6%	REP 70%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 65%
Ohio (OH), 1st Pureval-D vs Chabot*-R	REP 79.9%	REP 82%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 52%
Ohio (OH), 7th Harbaugh-D vs Gibbs*-R	REP 96.2%		REP Likely	REP Likely		REP 85%
Ohio (OH), 12th O’Connor-D vs Balderson*-R	REP 65.1%	REP 63%	50/50	50/50	REP Lean	REP 75%
Ohio (OH), 14th Rader-D vs Joyce*-R	REP 84.4%		REP Lean	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 80%
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary AstroProbability
Oklahoma (OK), 5th Horn-D vs Russell-R	REP 85.9%		REP	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 80%
Pennsylvania (PA), 1st Wallace-D vs Fitzpatrick*-R	REP 56.8%	DEM 52%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Pennsylvania (PA), 7th Wild-D vs Nothstein-R	DEM 95.1%		DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 60%
Pennsylvania (PA), 8th Cartwright*-D vs Chrin-R	DEM 96.3%		DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 75%
Pennsylvania (PA), 10th Scott-D vs Perry*-R	REP 67.5%		REP Lean	REP Lean	50/50	REP 70%
Pennsylvania (PA), 17th Lamb-D vs Rothfus*-R	DEM 95.9%	DEM 88%