Accuracy Track Record for the 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability* and the 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election
State-By-State Accuracy Track Record for the U.S. Presidential General Election on November 8, 2016:
| FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver | William Stickevers, Political Contest Horary AstroProbability |
| 90% correct | 92% correct |
| 51 projections | 51 projections |
46 correct  |
47 correct |
5 incorrect  |
4 incorrect |
FiveThirtyEight Projection Map
(as of November 7, 2016)
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Projection Map
(as of November 6, 2016)
Who will win the presidency?
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability [as of Nov. 3, 2016]:
Trump 53%
2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Final Results
Below are projections for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election as of November 7, 2016.
*Battleground States
| FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver | Political Contest Horary AstroProbability | |
| Alabama | Trump |
Trump |
| Alaska | Trump |
Trump |
| Arizona | Trump |
Trump |
| Arkansas | Trump |
Trump |
| California | Clinton |
Clinton |
| Colorado* | Clinton 77.5% |
Clinton 50% |
| Connecticut | Clinton |
Clinton |
| Delaware | Clinton |
Clinton |
| District of Columbia | Clinton |
Clinton |
| Florida* | Clinton 55.1% |
Trump 53% |
| Georgia | Trump |
Trump |
| Hawaii | Clinton |
Clinton |
| Idaho | Trump |
Trump |
| Illinois | Clinton |
Clinton |
| Indiana | Trump |
Trump |
| Iowa* | Trump 69.8% |
Trump 53% |
| Kansas | Trump |
Trump |
| Kentucky | Trump |
Trump |
| Louisiana | Trump |
Trump |
| Maine | Clinton |
Clinton |
| Maryland | Clinton |
Clinton |
| Massachusetts | Clinton |
Clinton |
| Michigan* | Clinton 78.9% |
Trump 50% |
| Minnesota* | Clinton 85.0% |
Trump 50% |
| Mississippi | Trump |
Trump |
| Missouri | Trump |
Trump |
| Montana | Trump |
Trump |
| Nebraska | Trump |
Trump |
| Nevada* | Clinton 58.3% |
Trump 52% |
| New Hampshire | Clinton |
Trump |
| New Jersey | Clinton |
Clinton |
| New Mexico | Clinton |
Clinton |
| New York | Clinton |
Clinton |
| North Carolina* | Clinton 55.5% |
Trump 55% |
| North Dakota | Trump |
Trump |
| Ohio* | Trump 64.6% |
Trump 53% |
| Oklahoma | Trump |
Trump |
| Oregon | Clinton |
Clinton |
| Pennsylvania* | Clinton 77.0% |
Trump 52% |
| Rhode Island | Clinton |
Clinton |
| South Carolina | Trump |
Trump |
| South Dakota | Trump |
Trump |
| Tennessee | Trump |
Trump |
| Texas | Trump |
Trump |
| Utah | Trump |
Trump |
| Vermont | Clinton |
Clinton |
| Virginia* | Clinton 85.5% |
Clinton 50% |
| Washington | Clinton |
Clinton |
| West Virginia | Trump |
Trump |
| Wisconsin* | Clinton 83.5% |
Clinton 51% |
| Wyoming | Trump |
Trump |
WILLIAM STICKEVERS 