WILLIAM STICKEVERS

Below are the Past Projections for the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election – SENATE

CURRENT PROJECTIONS

SENATE CONTROL – Previous Projections

51 Seats Needed for Majority Control

as of November 1, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sep 12
Senate Control	REP 85.4%	REP 88%	n/a	REP Likely	n/a	REP 75%

as of October 25, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sep 12
Senate Control	REP 82.8%	REP 87%	n/a	REP Likely	n/a	REP 75%

as of October 10, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sep 12
Senate Control	REP 80.5%	REP 84%	n/a	REP Likely	n/a	REP 75%

as of October 3, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sep 12
Senate Control	REP 76.7%	REP 76%	n/a	REP Likely	n/a	REP 75%

as of September 18, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Senate Control	REP 69.3%	REP 72%	n/a	REP Likely	n/a	REP 75%

as of September 12, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Senate Control	REP 67.7%	REP 73%	n/a	REP Likely	n/a	REP 75%

as of September 9, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Senate Control	n/a	REP – 75%		REP- Likely

as of September 7, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Senate Control	n/a	REP – 75%	n/a	n/a	n/a

 

---

---

---

SENATE ELECTIONS – Previous Projections

as of November 1, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Arizona (AZ) Sinema-D vs McSally-R	DEM 60.1%	REP 56%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Florida (FL) Nelson*-D vs Scott-R	DEM 71.0%	DEM 57%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Indiana (IN) Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R	DEM 70.4%	DEM 51%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R	DEM 89.2%	DEM 84%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM 50%
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R	REP 87.4%	REP 91%	REP	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 60%
Missouri (MO) McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R	DEM 59.6%	REP 60%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Montana (MT) Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R	DEM 84.6%	DEM 64%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 64%
Nebraska (NE) Raybould-D vs Fischer*-R	REP 97.9%	REP 96%	REP	REP	REP	REP 85%
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary – AstroProbability
Nevada (NV) Rosen-D vs Heller*-R	REP 55.5%	DEM 53%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
New Jersey (NJ) Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R	DEM 90.5%	DEM 79%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 55%
North Dakota (ND) Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R	REP 75.0%	REP 84%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Likely	REP 50%
Ohio (OH) Brown*-D vs Renacci-R	DEM 96.1%	DEM 88%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 85%
Pennsylvania (PA) Casey*-D vs Barletta-R	DEM 96.8%	DEM 93%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 90%
Tennessee (TN) Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R	REP 83.9%	REP 82%	50/50	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 60%
Texas (TX) O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R	REP 79.0%	REP 87%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 56%
West Virginia (WV) Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R	DEM 86.9%	DEM 79%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 58%
Wisconsin (WI) Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R	DEM 98.2%	DEM 91%	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 58%

as of October 25, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Arizona (AZ) Sinema-D vs McSally-R	DEM 62.2%	REP 63%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Florida (FL) Nelson*-D vs Scott-R	DEM 73.4%	DEM 57%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Indiana (IN) Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R	DEM 71.1%	REP 57%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R	DEM 89.0%	DEM 82%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM 50%
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R	REP 87.8%	REP 91%	REP	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 60%
Missouri (MO) McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R	DEM 58.0%	REP 64%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Montana (MT) Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R	DEM 86.6%	DEM 64%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 64%
Nebraska (NE) Raybould-D vs Fischer*-R	REP 96.7%	REP 96%	REP	REP	REP	REP 85%
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary – AstroProbability
Nevada (NV) Rosen-D vs Heller*-R	REP 60.3%	REP 55%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
New Jersey (NJ) Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R	DEM 90.5%	DEM 80%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 55%
North Dakota (ND) Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R	REP 71.1%	REP 86%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Likely	REP 50%
Ohio (OH) Brown*-D vs Renacci-R	DEM 96.7%	DEM 89%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 85%
Pennsylvania (PA) Casey*-D vs Barletta-R	DEM 97.9%	DEM 93%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 90%
Tennessee (TN) Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R	REP 76.1%	REP 82%	50/50	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 60%
Texas (TX) O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R	REP 79.2%	REP 80%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 56%
West Virginia (WV) Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R	DEM 89.3%	DEM 75%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Likely	DEM 58%
Wisconsin (WI) Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R	DEM 97.7%	DEM 90%	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 58%

as of October 10, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Arizona (AZ) Sinema-D vs McSally-R	DEM 63.3%	REP 53%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Florida (FL) Nelson*-D vs Scott-R	DEM 61.1%	REP 51%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Indiana (IN) Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R	DEM 77.0%	DEM 53%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R	DEM 89.5%	DEM 87%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM 50%
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R	REP 83.7%	REP 91%	REP	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 60%
Missouri (MO) McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R	DEM 55.8%	REP 62%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Montana (MT) Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R	DEM 84.3%	DEM 64%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 64%
Nebraska (NE) Raybould-D vs Fischer*-R	REP 96.7%	REP 94%	REP	REP	REP	REP 85%
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary – AstroProbability
Nevada (NV) Rosen-D vs Heller*-R	REP 51.7%	50/50	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
New Jersey (NJ) Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R	DEM 92.2%	DEM 78%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 55%
North Dakota (ND) Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R	REP 68.0%	REP 80%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 50%
Ohio (OH) Brown*-D vs Renacci-R	DEM 96.2%	DEM 89%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 85%
Pennsylvania (PA) Casey*-D vs Barletta-R	DEM 97.6%	DEM 90%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 90%
Tennessee (TN) Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R	REP 79.1%	REP 83%	50/50	REP Lean	50/50	REP 60%
Texas (TX) O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R	REP 74.8%	REP 79%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 56%
West Virginia (WV) Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R	DEM 88.8%	DEM 79%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 58%
Wisconsin (WI) Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R	DEM 97.3%	DEM 87%	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 58%

as of October 3, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Oct 9
Arizona (AZ) Sinema-D vs McSally-R	DEM 65.8%	DEM 58%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Florida (FL) Nelson*-D vs Scott-R	DEM 60.9%	DEM 55%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Indiana (IN) Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R	DEM 76.1%	DEM 52%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R	DEM 89.0%	DEM 83%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM 50%
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R	REP 83.4%	REP 91%	REP	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 60%
Missouri (MO) McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R	DEM 60.8%	REP 52%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Montana (MT) Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R	DEM 81.4%	DEM 62%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 64%
Nebraska (NE) Raybould-D vs Fischer-R	REP 96.8%	REP 92%	REP	REP	REP	REP 85%
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary – AstroProbability
Nevada (NV) Rosen-D vs Heller*-R	DEM 53.1%	DEM 65%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
New Jersey (NJ) Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R	DEM 89.4%	DEM 76%	DEM Lean	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM 55%
North Dakota (ND) Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R	REP 68.0%	REP 73%	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP Lean	REP 50%
Ohio (OH) Brown*-D vs Renacci-R	DEM 95.1%	DEM 88%	DEM Lean	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 85%
Pennsylvania (PA) Casey*-D vs Barletta-R	DEM 97.4%	DEM 88%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 90%
Tennessee (TN) Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R	REP 66.9%	REP 62%	50/50	REP Lean	50/50	REP 60%
Texas (TX) O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R	REP 72.1%	REP 68%	REP Lean	REP Lean	50/50	REP 56%
West Virginia (WV) Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R	DEM 87.6%	DEM 76%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 58%
Wisconsin (WI) Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R	DEM 96.9%	DEM 88%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 58%

as of September 26, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Oct 3
Arizona (AZ) Sinema-D vs McSally-R	DEM 69.4%	DEM 57%	50/50	50/50	50/50	DEM 50%
Florida (FL) Nelson*-D vs Scott-R	DEM 61.3%	DEM 56%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Indiana (IN) Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R	DEM 76.0%	REP 55%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R	DEM 90.3%	DEM 83%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean	DEM 50%
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R	REP 84.5%	REP 85%	REP	REP Likely	REP Likely	REP 60%
Missouri (MO) McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R	DEM 62.1%	REP 52%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Montana (MT) Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R	DEM 85.8%	DEM 65%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 64%
Nebraska (NE) Raybould-D vs Fischer-R	REP 96.1%	REP 93%	REP	REP	REP
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary – AstroProbability
Nevada (NV) Rosen-D vs Heller*-R	DEM 53.7%	DEM 63%	50/50	50/50	50/50	DEM 50%
New Jersey (NJ) Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R	DEM 92.9%	DEM 76%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean
North Dakota (ND) Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R	DEM 56.8%	REP 57%	REP Lean	REP Lean	50/50	REP 50%
Ohio (OH) Brown*-D vs Renacci-R	DEM 96.2%	DEM 87%	DEM Lean	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 85%
Pennsylvania (PA) Casey*-D vs Barletta-R	DEM 97.7%	DEM 89%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM 90%
Tennessee (TN) Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R	REP 59.7%	REP 56%	50/50	REP Lean	50/50	REP 60%
Texas (TX) O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R	REP 69.1%	REP 66%	REP Lean	REP Lean	50/50	REP 56%
West Virginia (WV) Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R	DEM 88.3%	DEM 80%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean
Wisconsin (WI) Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R	DEM 97.2%	DEM 86%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM 58%

as of September 19 (25), 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sept 25
Arizona Sinema-D vs McSally-R	DEM 69.6%	DEM 54%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
California Feinstein*-D vs De Leon-D	DEM 99.7%	DEM 87%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Connecticut Murphy-D vs Corey-R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Delaware -D vs -R	DEM 99.2%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Florida Nelson*-D vs Scott-R	DEM 55.0%	DEM 50%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
Hawaii Hirono*-D vs Curtis-R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Indiana Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R	DEM 76.2%	REP 53%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Maine Ringelstein-D vs King-I vs Brakey-R	IND 99.9%	IND 98%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Maryland Cardin-D vs Campbell-R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Massachusetts Warren*-D vs Diehl-R	DEM 99.9%	DEM 95%	DEM	DEM	DEM
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary – AstroProbability
Michigan Stabenow*-D vs James-R	DEM 99.2%	DEM 85%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely
Minnesota Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R	DEM 99.8%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Minnesota – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R	DEM 90.2%	DEM 80%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean
Mississippi Baria-D vs Wicker-R	REP 98.5%	n/a	REP	REP	REP
Mississippi – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R	REP 84.3%	REP 88%	REP	REP Likely	REP Likely
Missouri McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R	DEM 62.3%	REP 51%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Montana Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R	DEM 87.1%	DEM 68%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50	DEM 64%
Nebraska Raybould-D vs Fischer-R	REP 95.7%	REP 94%	REP	REP	REP
Nevada Rosen-D vs Heller*-R	DEM 53.2%	DEM 60%	50/50	50/50	50/50
New Jersey Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R	DEM 92.5%	DEM 74%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean
New Mexico Heinrich-D vs Rich-R	DEM 98.2%	DEM 94%	DEM	DEM	DEM
New York Gillibrand-D vs Farley-R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
North Dakota Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R	DEM 57.4%	REP 62%	REP Lean	REP Lean	50/50
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary – AstroProbability
Ohio Brown*-D vs Renacci-R	DEM 95.9%	DEM 85%	DEM Lean	DEM Likely	DEM Likely
Pennsylvania Casey*-D vs Barletta-R	DEM 95.7%	DEM 87%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely
Rhode Island -D vs -R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Tennessee Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R	REP 60.1%	REP 56%	50/50	REP Lean	50/50	REP 60%
Texas O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R	REP 66.9%	REP 66%	REP Lean	REP Lean	50/50	REP 56%
Utah Wilson-D vs Romney-R	REP 99.9%	n/a	REP	REP	REP
Vermont Sanders*-D/I vs Paige-R	DEM 99.9%	DEM 97%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Virginia Kaine*-D vs Stewart-R	DEM 98.4%	DEM 94%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Washington Cantwell-D vs Hutchison-R	DEM 99.5%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
West Virginia Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R	DEM 88.7%	DEM 77%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean
Wisconsin Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R	DEM 97.1%	DEM 82%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean
Wyoming Trauner-D vs Barrasso*-R	REP 99.9%	n/a	REP	REP	REP

as of September 19, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sept 22
Arizona Sinema-D vs McSally-R	DEM 69.6%	DEM 54%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
California Feinstein*-D vs De Leon-D	DEM 99.7%	DEM 87%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Connecticut Murphy-D vs Corey-R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Delaware -D vs -R	DEM 99.2%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Florida Nelson*-D vs Scott-R	DEM 55.0%	DEM 50%	50/50	50/50	50/50
Hawaii Hirono*-D vs Curtis-R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Indiana Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R	DEM 76.2%	REP 53%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Maine Ringelstein-D vs King-I vs Brakey-R	IND 99.9%	IND 98%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Maryland Cardin-D vs Campbell-R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Massachusetts Warren*-D vs Diehl-R	DEM 99.9%	DEM 95%	DEM	DEM	DEM
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary – AstroProbability
Michigan Stabenow*-D vs James-R	DEM 99.2%	DEM 85%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely
Minnesota Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R	DEM 99.8%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Minnesota – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R	DEM 90.2%	DEM 80%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean
Mississippi Baria-D vs Wicker-R	REP 98.5%	n/a	REP	REP	REP
Mississippi – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R	REP 84.3%	REP 88%	REP	REP Likely	REP Likely
Missouri McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R	DEM 62.3%	REP 51%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Montana Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R	DEM 87.1%	DEM 68%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50
Nebraska Raybould-D vs Fischer-R	REP 95.7%	REP 94%	REP	REP	REP
Nevada Rosen-D vs Heller*-R	DEM 53.2%	DEM 60%	50/50	50/50	50/50
New Jersey Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R	DEM 92.5%	DEM 74%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean
New Mexico Heinrich-D vs Rich-R	DEM 98.2%	DEM 94%	DEM	DEM	DEM
New York Gillibrand-D vs Farley-R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
North Dakota Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R	DEM 57.4%	REP 62%	REP Lean	REP Lean	50/50
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary – AstroProbability
Ohio Brown*-D vs Renacci-R	DEM 95.9%	DEM 85%	DEM Lean	DEM Likely	DEM Likely
Pennsylvania Casey*-D vs Barletta-R	DEM 95.7%	DEM 87%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely
Rhode Island -D vs -R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Tennessee Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R	REP 60.1%	REP 56%	50/50	REP Lean	50/50	REP 60%
Texas O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R	REP 66.9%	REP 66%	REP Lean	REP Lean	50/50	REP 56%
Utah Wilson-D vs Romney-R	REP 99.9%	n/a	REP	REP	REP
Vermont Sanders*-D/I vs Paige-R	DEM 99.9%	DEM 97%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Virginia Kaine*-D vs Stewart-R	DEM 98.4%	DEM 94%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Washington Cantwell-D vs Hutchison-R	DEM 99.5%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
West Virginia Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R	DEM 88.7%	DEM 77%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean
Wisconsin Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R	DEM 97.1%	DEM 82%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean
Wyoming Trauner-D vs Barrasso*-R	REP 99.9%	n/a	REP	REP	REP

as of September 9, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability as of Sep 17
Arizona Sinema-D vs McSally-R	DEM 67.1%	REP 52%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 52%
California Feinstein*-D vs De Leon-D	DEM 99.8%	DEM 88%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Connecticut Murphy-D vs Corey-R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Delaware -D vs -R	DEM 99.2%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Florida Nelson*-D vs Scott-R	DEM 55.1%	DEM 54%	50/50	50/50	50/50
Hawaii Hirono*-D vs Curtis-R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Indiana Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R	DEM 76.5%	REP 52%	50/50	50/50	50/50	REP 51%
Maine Ringelstein-D vs King-I vs Brakey-R	IND 99.9%	IND 96%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Maryland Cardin-D vs Campbell-R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Massachusetts Warren*-D vs Diehl-R	DEM 99.9%	DEM 95%	DEM	DEM	DEM
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary – AstroProbability
Michigan Stabenow*-D vs James-R	DEM 99.2%	DEM 85%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely
Minnesota Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R	DEM 99.8%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Minnesota – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R	DEM 91.8%	DEM 76%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean
Mississippi Baria-D vs Wicker-R	REP 98.2%	n/a	REP	REP	REP
Mississippi – Special Election Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R	REP 83.0%	REP 91%	REP	REP Likely	REP Likely
Missouri McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R	DEM 76.6%	DEM 52%	50/50	50/50	50/50
Montana Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R	DEM 90.3%	DEM 68%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	50/50
Nebraska Raybould-D vs Fischer-R	REP 95.3%	REP 91%	REP	REP	REP
Nevada Rosen-D vs Heller*-R	DEM 59.1%	DEM 63%	50/50	50/50	50/50
New Jersey Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R	DEM 92.9%	DEM 76%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Lean
New Mexico Heinrich-D vs Rich-R	DEM 98.8%	DEM 89%	DEM	DEM	DEM
New York Gillibrand-D vs Farley-R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
North Dakota Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R	DEM 59.9%	DEM 62%	REP Lean	REP Lean	50/50
	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Horary – AstroProbability
Ohio Brown*-D vs Renacci-R	DEM 95.2%	DEM 86%	DEM Lean	DEM Likely	DEM Likely
Pennsylvania Casey*-D vs Barletta-R	DEM 96.0%	DEM 88%	DEM Likely	DEM Likely	DEM Likely
Rhode Island -D vs -R	DEM 99.9%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Tennessee Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R	REP 70.0%	REP 57%	50/50	REP Lean	50/50	REP 60%
Texas O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R	REP 65.6%	REP 61%	REP Lean	REP Lean	50/50
Utah Wilson-D vs Romney-R	REP 99.9%	n/a	REP	REP	REP
Vermont Sanders*-D/I vs Paige-R	DEM 99.9%	DEM 96%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Virginia Kaine*-D vs Stewart-R	DEM 98.7%	DEM 94%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Washington Cantwell-D vs Hutchison-R	DEM 99.5%	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
West Virginia Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R	DEM 88.4%	DEM 72%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean
Wisconsin Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R	DEM 95.8%	DEM 84%	DEM Lean	DEM Lean	DEM Lean
Wyoming Trauner-D vs Barrasso*-R	REP 99.9%	n/a	REP	REP	REP

as of September 9, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Arizona Sinema-D vs McSally-R	n/a	DEM – 51%	50/50	50/50	50/50
California Feinstein*-D vs De Leon-D	n/a	DEM – 90%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Connecticut Murphy-D vs Corey-R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Delaware -D vs -R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Florida Nelson*-D vs Scott-R	n/a	REP – 53%	50/50	50/50	50/50
Hawaii Hirono*-D vs Curtis-R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Indiana Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R	n/a	DEM – 52%	50/50	50/50	50/50
Maine Ringelstein-D vs King-I vs Brakey-R	n/a	IND – 96%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Maryland Cardin-D vs Campbell-R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Massachusetts Warren*-D vs Diehl-R	n/a	DEM – 95%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Michigan Stabenow*-D vs James-R	n/a	DEM – 83%	Likely DEM	Likely DEM	Likely DEM
Minnesota Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Minnesota – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R	n/a	DEM – 84%	Likely DEM	Likely DEM	Lean DEM
Mississippi Baria-D vs Wicker-R	n/a	n/a	REP	REP	REP
Mississippi – Special Election -D vs Hyde-Smith*-R	n/a	n/a	n/a	Likely REP	Likely REP
Missouri McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R	n/a	Rep – 55%	50/50	50/50	50/50
Montana Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R	n/a	DEM – 65%	Lean DEM	Lean DEM	50/50
Nebraska Raybould-D vs Fischer-R	n/a	REP – 92%	REP	REP	REP
Nevada Rosen-D vs Heller*-R	n/a	DEM – 63%	50/50	50/50	50/50
New Jersey Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R	n/a	DEM – 77%	Likely DEM	Likely DEM	Lean DEM
New Mexico Heinrich-D vs Rich-R	n/a	DEM – 89%	DEM	DEM	DEM
New York Gillibrand-D vs Farley-R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
North Dakota Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R	n/a	REP – 62%	Lean REP	Lean REP	50/50
Ohio Brown*-D vs Renacci-R	n/a	DEM – 82%	Lean DEM	Likely DEM	Likely DEM
Pennsylvania Casey*-D vs Barletta-R	n/a	DEM – 87%	Likely DEM	Likely DEM	Likely DEM
Rhode Island -D vs -R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Tennessee Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R	n/a	Rep – 55%	50/50	Lean REP	50/50
Texas O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R	n/a	Rep – 60%	Lean REP	Lean REP	50/50
Utah Wilson-D vs Romney-R	n/a	n/a	REP	REP	REP
Vermont Sanders*-D/I vs Paige-R	n/a	DEM – 96%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Virginia Kaine*-D vs Stewart-R	n/a	DEM – 94%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Washington Cantwell-D vs Hutchison-R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
West Virginia Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R	n/a	DEM – 74%	Lean DEM	Lean DEM	Lean DEM
Wisconsin Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R	n/a	DEM – 80%	Lean DEM	Lean DEM	Lean DEM
Wyoming Trauner-D vs Barrasso*-R	n/a	n/a	REP	REP	REP

as of September 7, 2018:

	Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver	PredictIt	CNN Politics	Politico	Real Clear Politics	Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
Arizona Sinema-D vs McSally-R	n/a	Dem – 51%	50/50	50/50	50/50
California Feinstein*-D vs De Leon-D	n/a	DEM – 90%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Connecticut Murphy-D vs Corey-R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Delaware -D vs -R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Florida Nelson*-D vs Scott-R	n/a	REP – 53%	50/50	50/50	50/50
Hawaii Hirono*-D vs Curtis-R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Indiana Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R	n/a	DEM – 52%	50/50	50/50	50/50
Maine Ringelstein-D vs King-I vs Brakey-R	n/a	IND – 96%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Maryland Cardin-D vs Campbell-R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Massachusetts Warren*-D vs Diehl-R	n/a	DEM – 95%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Michigan Stabenow*-D vs James-R	n/a	DEM – 83%	Likely DEM	Likely DEM	Likely DEM
Minnesota Klobuchar-D vs Newberger-R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Minnesota – Special Election Smith*-D vs Housley-R	n/a	DEM – 84%	Likely DEM	Likely DEM	Lean DEM
Mississippi Baria-D vs Wicker-R	n/a	n/a	REP	REP	REP
Mississippi – Special Election -D vs Hyde-Smith*-R	n/a	n/a	n/a	Likely REP	Likely REP
Missouri McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R	n/a	Rep – 55%	50/50	50/50	50/50
Montana Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R	n/a	Dem – 65%	Lean DEM	Lean DEM	50/50
Nebraska Raybould-D vs Fischer-R	n/a	REP – 92%	REP	REP	REP
Nevada Rosen-D vs Heller*-R	n/a	DEM – 63%	50/50	50/50	50/50
New Jersey Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R	n/a	DEM – 77%	Likely DEM	Likely DEM	Lean DEM
New Mexico Heinrich-D vs Rich-R	n/a	DEM – 89%	DEM	DEM	DEM
New York Gillibrand-D vs Farley-R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
North Dakota Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R	n/a	REP – 62%	Lean REP	Lean REP	50/50
Ohio Brown*-D vs Renacci-R	n/a	DEM – 82%	Lean DEM	Likely DEM	Likely DEM
Pennsylvania Casey*-D vs Barletta-R	n/a	DEM – 87%	Likely DEM	Likely DEM	Likely DEM
Rhode Island -D vs -R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
Tennessee Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R	n/a	Rep – 55%	50/50	Lean REP	50/50
Texas O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R	n/a	Rep – 60%	Lean REP	Lean REP	50/50
Utah Wilson-D vs Romney-R	n/a	n/a	REP	REP	REP
Vermont Sanders*-D vs Paige-R	n/a	DEM – 96%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Virginia Kaine*-D vs -R	n/a	DEM – 94%	DEM	DEM	DEM
Washington Cantwell-D vs Hutchison-R	n/a	n/a	DEM	DEM	DEM
West Virginia Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R	n/a	DEM – 74%	Lean DEM	Lean DEM	Lean DEM
Wisconsin Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R	n/a	DEM – 80%	Lean DEM	Lean DEM	Lean DEM
Wyoming Trauner-D vs Barrasso*-R	n/a	n/a	REP	REP	REP