Election 2012: Why I Was Wrong
Let me start off by saying I knew by late May this Presidential election was going to be a close race due to an under-performing economy with a high degree of uncertainty because of the Uranus-Pluto Square Alignments and the Mercury Retrograde effect on Election Day.
For those of you who send me nasty and derogatory emails and for those who sent in reasoned arguments that I was wrong, please be assured that I will be on a diet of crow for some time.
Also, congratulations are in order to re-elected President Barack Obama, who won 332 Electoral College votes (when the final votes in Florida are fully counted), and the 31 world-class astrologers who correctly predicted that President Obama would win re-election.
On November 8, 2012, the RealClearPolitics state poll aggregation indicated that President Obama was slated to score 290 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 248. Because of errors in pre-polling, using 2008 assumptions by most pollsters that the 2012 Voter ID makeup would remain the same (39% Democrat / 32% Republican / 29% Independent), and a strong Get-Out-The-Vote operation in the 9 key swing states on either side, I conjectured that most of the polls would be off by a number of points in either direction. I believed using contest horary snapshots of based on the date and time a poll was published, I could determine which candidate was incrementally outperforming in the polls, and could accurately speculate where the vote projection would be on Election Day, as I did so successively in both the 2008 and 2010 mid-term elections.
Based on numerous horary snapshots based on published poll data sources, I concluded that Romney would outperform the composite polling aggregate by 3 points in most every battleground state, enough to deprive Obama of his demographic advantage in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, giving him an electoral vote majority of 291 Electoral Votes and slightly over 50% of the National Vote. However, Romney’s momentum slowed to a screeching halt as the devastating cyclone Sandy blew the campaign off course and allowed the President to project leadership at the head of a multi-state disaster response, neutralizing Romney’s gains in the swing states after his command performance in his first debate with a lackluster Obama.
The final contest horary snapshots of the final polls on the evening of November 5th, reflected a much close race with mixed testimonies for both candidates, but I gave the edge to Romney since Gallup indicated that voter turnout for Obama will be lower than in 2008, and the fact that Romney led for 12 straight days with margins of six points with Independent voters that composed approximately 30% of the electorate, most of that time in the combined 11 key swing states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012 up to October 29th.
However, Obama was able regain considerable momentum in the final days of the campaign and reverse the so-called “Incumbent Re-Election Rule” that states nearly 80% of the time when the challenger has been found to be an acceptable choice as in this election, at least ¾ of the undecided will vote for the challenger.
On November 5th the RCP national composite poll had Romney’s average at 47.3% and Obama’s average at 47.6%, with 4.8% of registered voters undecided. The most recent Exit Poll data revels that a majority of undecided voters began to break heavily for the President giving him a significant 3.6% advantage with no additional votes going to Romney. The last-minute undecided voter turnout for the incumbent President, an anomaly that is unprecedented based on my understanding of modern presidential elections, was a factor that I was not able to detect in my political speculations and foresee in my horary judgments. So I was wrong.
Although I take no pleasure in finding I have been wrong, I also realize it is an opportunity to learn more and learn from those astrologers that called it right.
Over the next few weeks, as many of us will begin to speculate about the approaching Mayan Calendar End Date on December 21st and the coming Fiscal Cliff on January 1st, 2013, I will continue to prowl through the 2012 election statistics and vote data and compare the results with my published horary speculations and polling sources, to learn much more about where I came up short, and more importantly determine the national political dynamic of Tuesday’s election, where nothing has changed with Barack Obama remaining as President, the Democrats remaining in control of the Senate with a non-filibuster-proof majority, and the Republicans remaining in control of the House of Representatives.