Election 2012: Why I Was Wrong
Let me start off by saying I knew by late May this Presidential election was going to be a close race due to an under-performing economy with a high degree of uncertainty because of the Uranus-Pluto Square Alignments and the Mercury Retrograde effect on Election Day.
For those of you who send me nasty and derogatory emails and for those who sent in reasoned arguments that I was wrong, please be assured that I will be on a diet of crow for some time.
Also, congratulations are in order to re-elected President Barack Obama, who won 332 Electoral College votes (when the final votes in Florida are fully counted), and the 31 world-class astrologers who correctly predicted that President Obama would win re-election.
On November 8, 2012, the RealClearPolitics state poll aggregation indicated that President Obama was slated to score 290 electoral votes to Mitt Romney’s 248. Because of errors in pre-polling, using 2008 assumptions by most pollsters that the 2012 Voter ID makeup would remain the same (39% Democrat / 32% Republican / 29% Independent), and a strong Get-Out-The-Vote operation in the 9 key swing states on either side, I conjectured that most of the polls would be off by a number of points in either direction. I believed using contest horary snapshots of based on the date and time a poll was published, I could determine which candidate was incrementally outperforming in the polls, and could accurately speculate where the vote projection would be on Election Day, as I did so successively in both the 2008 and 2010 mid-term elections.
Based on numerous horary snapshots based on published poll data sources, I concluded that Romney would outperform the composite polling aggregate by 3 points in most every battleground state, enough to deprive Obama of his demographic advantage in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, giving him an electoral vote majority of 291 Electoral Votes and slightly over 50% of the National Vote. However, Romney’s momentum slowed to a screeching halt as the devastating cyclone Sandy blew the campaign off course and allowed the President to project leadership at the head of a multi-state disaster response, neutralizing Romney’s gains in the swing states after his command performance in his first debate with a lackluster Obama.
The final contest horary snapshots of the final polls on the evening of November 5th, reflected a much close race with mixed testimonies for both candidates, but I gave the edge to Romney since Gallup indicated that voter turnout for Obama will be lower than in 2008, and the fact that Romney led for 12 straight days with margins of six points with Independent voters that composed approximately 30% of the electorate, most of that time in the combined 11 key swing states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012 up to October 29th.
However, Obama was able regain considerable momentum in the final days of the campaign and reverse the so-called “Incumbent Re-Election Rule” that states nearly 80% of the time when the challenger has been found to be an acceptable choice as in this election, at least ¾ of the undecided will vote for the challenger.
On November 5th the RCP national composite poll had Romney’s average at 47.3% and Obama’s average at 47.6%, with 4.8% of registered voters undecided. The most recent Exit Poll data revels that a majority of undecided voters began to break heavily for the President giving him a significant 3.6% advantage with no additional votes going to Romney. The last-minute undecided voter turnout for the incumbent President, an anomaly that is unprecedented based on my understanding of modern presidential elections, was a factor that I was not able to detect in my political speculations and foresee in my horary judgments. So I was wrong.
Although I take no pleasure in finding I have been wrong, I also realize it is an opportunity to learn more and learn from those astrologers that called it right.
Over the next few weeks, as many of us will begin to speculate about the approaching Mayan Calendar End Date on December 21st and the coming Fiscal Cliff on January 1st, 2013, I will continue to prowl through the 2012 election statistics and vote data and compare the results with my published horary speculations and polling sources, to learn much more about where I came up short, and more importantly determine the national political dynamic of Tuesday’s election, where nothing has changed with Barack Obama remaining as President, the Democrats remaining in control of the Senate with a non-filibuster-proof majority, and the Republicans remaining in control of the House of Representatives.
You were actually closer than you think to being correct. Good work on your analysis William.
Well it takes a big man, to admit, to ones error.
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Sam, as an expert mundane astrologer I would like to question your ability to question Mundane Astrology and on your comments on William Stickevers.
For one, the word is “mundus’ – meaning the world, and mundane astrology is the core of Astrology itself. I was a student of Charles Jayne, the mundane astrologer who forecasted World War II and the co-founder of the Vertex.
Also, the professional astrologer William Stickevers was a lot closer to being right than being wrong about this most recent general election. His methods used were validated. If not for a few tweaks, the election would have been another story.
I also question bias. You know, it works both ways. I consider you picking on William Stickevers is biased and that you should come correct, apologize to him and then refrain from attacking other astrologers for being right, or for being wrong for that matter.
And, I will explain why this is so. Please bear with me. Thank you.
I applied my own mundane methods to call for the re-election for President Obama. I also forecasted Obama to win back in 2008 when many astrologers (some of the same today who said that McCain would win) and who also predicted that Hilliary Clinton would be the nominee. I was attacked for forecasting Obama in the 2008 contest; yet I was correct. See how this works?
I respect William Stickevers for doing what most astrologers will not do – and that is to forecast and to be ready to be in error, since that is what forecasting – not predicting – is about: putting yourself out there, on the line and being ready to be right or wrong.
However, as any true forecaster knows, one can be right for all the wrong reasons and be wrong for all the right reasons. These are the fine subtle lines Samuel that you should be aware that exist in mundane forecasting.
Let us also remember that electional astrology is also part of the Mundane method, as is the reading nativities.
Again, nativities are part of the advanced branch of Judicial Astrology, which is the mundane branch. Let’s not forget that either.
All the tools we use in astrology are applicable. I, for one, am not biased. This is perhaps because when I first see charts I always see the weather and climate first, then I look at whatever is there in the nativity, the secondary progressions, in the electional or the mundane.
I called both presidential elections, for President Obama, in 2008 and in 2012 based on mundane methods. I also forecasted the full moon superstorm of Oct. 29, 2012 but few noticed until the storm arrived.
Methodologies work as they are adeptly applied.
Saying that, the truth is that are few skilled astrologers in the world. Even fewer astrologers are knowledgeable and experienced in Mundane Astrology when they had plenty of opportunity over past decades to learn, but most just went about staying with natal and psychological astrology – to their error.
In light of all the global events since 2008, many are now playing catch-up, pretending to forecast, pretending to ‘predict,’ but you don’t learn mundane astrology in a couple of years and it is quite difficult to master it in that time. It takes decades for many and for most – never. Even fewer astrologers still can forecast the weather and climate.
The great majority of astrologers out here now who are in congratulatory mode on this election were not there in 2008 and are NOT there every year on a GREAT number of issues and events that are of significant importance – such as the global economic crisis, to just name one. Many don’t practice mundane astrology but presume to be in a position to criticize it exactly because they themselves are not proficient in the expert mundane practice.
That needs to change.
I don’t like it when these elections roll around every four years and astrologers who use the absurd term ‘predictive astrology’ fall all over themselves trying to prove they can ‘predict’ something. Exactly what are they doing during the interim years when mundane astrologers like me are forecasting their asses off?
Then, after the election is done, and the ‘who predicted right and wrong’ prediction game is over (while downing people like William for being wrong) these ‘astrologers’ proceed to retreat into their non-predictive cocoons feeling all ‘sage’ telling everyone they ‘predicted’ the election winner so that they can be seen as being ‘astrologers’ who can predict. That is total bullshit.
If you notice, William Stickevers has been forecasting on the economy for some time – correctly forecasting a series of critical events that I have also forecasted myself. Why is it somehow okay to harp on him for the Obama-Romney election race, but not to say anything when he is correct?
It is shameful for anyone to come down on an astrologer of this caliber for being wrong on a national election. William’s methods are sound, again, for but a few tweaks in this particular election, however, I shall show him where those tweaks are located so that he can do what I can do. That’s how much I respect William for putting himself on the line in forecasting.
Never attack a true astrologer, even in political contests, since politics, as we all know, can be a heated topic even in families. Mundane astrologers know some of the secrets of God. That deserves your respect and I’ll be damned if I will allow attacks on skilled astrologers without rebuke and correction to follow.
Forecasting – not ‘predicting’ – is serous business. It is my expertise and I am well-acquainted with being right and being wrong in forecasts. It is a science that only the masters practice as an art. Only those who are immature would dare to come down on another astrologer for being ‘wrong’ when most don’t forecast worth a nickel themselves – preferring to arm-chair quarterback AFTER THE FACT.
We’ve got a serious problem in astrology with a majority of astrologers who do not forecast. They show up at conferences and pretend that they are astrologers who forecast and come off with bogus astrological methods to claim that they ‘predicted this’ and ‘predicted that.’ Nostradamus wrote a curse against them and Ptolemy himself called them ‘rascals practitioners.’
We have a serious problem with them today and it pisses me off because conventional science uses those ‘astrologers’ to then tell the public that astrology is a pseudo-science.
Samuel, I note this comment of yours –
“My thinking has changed a lot during this election. I still don’t feel compelled to seek astrology as a guide when statistical data, demographics, hearing the candidates from all sides and my own amateur, yet studied approach of American culture and politics give me so much more clear cut information. Like I said, I predicted an Obama re-election about a year ago using my own critical reasoning ability and common sense. (I think the GOP field was too weak to have a candidate who could challenge a mostly popular President, in short.) Look, Ma, no astrology! I prefer to use astrology for regular people and situations where there’s not enough “real world” data to make decisions or be informed.”
Samuel, Astrology are the cycles of Time in motion in Space. It is ALL THE TIME and all around you.
For you to say, Look Ma, no astrology!” bemoans the fact that you believe that astrology is somehow intellectually and reasoned away as if Astrology is only in a book? Or when you decide to pay attention to it?
No, it is not. It is all the time. Every square foot of everything in this solar system is covered in lines of powerful lines of electromagnetic and kinetic influence. Those are stellar, lunar, and planetary. There is no escaping it whatsoever.
Astrology, like it or not, is with us all. No matter where we are or what we are doing. While some say that they don’t ‘believe’ in astrology, I always respond that that is their problem, since Astrology surely believes in you.
Now – saying that, it is quite a easy matter to use ‘common sense’ and ‘critical reasoning ability’ when it comes to a two-horse political contest. It is quite another to forecast it and other events using astrological means.
And common sense is not the sole resident of non-astrologers, or astrologers for that matter – but the Astrology always is a player, and a major one at that.
Remember that mundane astrology is built on statistics as well. It has centuries of data based on direct observations of the inclinations and influences of the celestial bodies on the Earth and those who live on it.
For you to assume (and you do assume) that mundane astrologers do not use demographics and statistics, as well as common sense, is silly to say the least.
We mundane astrologers do not wear dark hoods and robes pontificating about the mysteries of the universe in some hermetically-sealed atmosphere. I am a black man, a professional astrologer, a journalist, mundane astrologer, an expert forecaster as well as a polymath.
I am a modern man, and a mundane astrologer living – and forecasting – in the real world.
I agree with your comment here, where you say, “However I also have found a better class of mundane astrologers who show that mundane forecasting can be done well. I’ve also gotten clearer that what makes for a mundane astrology (or most other forms of astrology) done well isn’t simply a matter of nailing the right outcome. I think what matters most is using a method that minimizes your bias, giving the astrologer his or her best shot at accuracy. A successful astrologer uses techniques, conventional or unconventional, to hear the testimony of multiple charts, planets, or various points with as little noise as possible. An astrologer’s main job is to make sure that he or she is hearing each ;key witness; with as little internal or external disruption as possible.”
My answer to this Samuel is that this is done by simply reading all the relevant stellar and planetary configurations and synthesizing them. I do it all the time in my mundane, electional, natal and astrometeorological work. However, know that few astrologers in the world are able to conduct themselves well enough to being together all the data without bias – those who say that they were right in this election were just as biased.
Saying that, those currently congratulating themselves for ‘predicting’ the most recent election should stay out here and not retreat back into their usual state of non-forecasting mode.
Rather, congratulate and celebrate those who took the time and effort, as William Stickevers did, to put himself on the line to forecast.
I would like to see those ‘astrologers’ who now bask in their singular glory at this time continue to ‘predict’ to see if they are able to discover why being ‘wrong’ can be just as important as being ‘right.’ For THAT is how we learn to forecast.
Thanks for your attention to my long response.
maybe the answer was perfectly accurate for the question being asked….perhaps different \\\\\questions would bring more clarity regarding the election.