1st Presidential Debate: Who Will Win with the Voters?
Tonight’s presidential debate is expected to set an audience record, breaking the 2016 mark of 84 million viewers, as President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden meet in person for the first time since Trump’s January 2017 inauguration.
ZeroHedge: Opinions are split about tonight’s debate: On one hand, Deutsche Banks’s Jim Reid says that it “will be critical, since it represents one of the last set-piece opportunities for either candidate to change the contours of the race.” On the other, as Rabobank’s Michael Every is dismissive, writing that “neither man has a reputation for eloquence, remaining calm at all times, clearly getting their point across to neutrals, or remaining gaffe free.”
But will tonight’s debate make a difference among voters? One place where the debate could have an impact is in narrowing Biden’s lead. According to Citi, four of the past five “first debates” have seen the trailing candidate close the gap in the polls – at least temporarily.
ZeroHedge: Meanwhile, CitiFx claims that market focus will be on the potential for a poor showing from Biden as a turning point in the election; however, according to media reports, the Biden campaign has been preparing for the debate and will likely focus on key issues (economy, pandemic) rather than direct confrontation with Trump.
What about the outcome of the debate and the pronounced winner? Here, as Jim Reid also points out, the reality is that the candidates’ perceived debate success has in the past had a fairly random correlation as to whether they will be elected on not. Mitt Romney “won” the first debate against Obama in 2012 by a huge 52% majority according to Gallup but lost the election.
Extending the list, in the last 10 elections with debate reaction data stretching back to 1976, only 2 candidates who were perceived to have won the first debate went on to win the election.
History suggests the debate could make a difference because the White House race is tight in the 9 critical swing states, and there are certain keys to a debate victory for each candidate, according to Mitchell McKinney, a presidential-debates expert who leads the University of Missouri’s Political Communication Institute.
So the Political Contest Horary is who will win the first debate with the voters in the nine battleground swing-states (Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, ) that will result in closing the gap in the polls?
A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll gives an edge to Trump in the debates and by most accounts, Biden is not a strong debater. Therefore Trump in the debate contest horary will be allocated as the Favorite to win tonight’s debate and Biden assigned as the Underdog respectively.
Favorite (Trump): 1st House
Underdog (Biden): 7th House
10th House (The Prize) – The Poll Numbers in the 9 Battleground States
The Moon: The Voters
In this horary figure, Sagittarius is rising therefore Jupiter rules the 1st House by sign and almutem. Jupiter is in the sign of his Fall but dignified by Term and has strength being placed in the 1st House.
The Jupiter-Pluto conjunction in the horary figure shows that Trump is essentially a rabble-rousing debater who savors the battle and is not handicapped by conventional rules, forcing his opponents to play by his own hand.
Jupiter will sextile Neptune, and conjunct Pluto and Saturn, also placed in the 1st House, testimonies that indicate that Trump will play to his strengths and come out on the attack, exposing Biden for his lack of vigor and strength and mental sharpness. These testimonies augur that Trump will attempt to make a strong case that not only that he deserves four more years in office because he can get America back on track again and taking aim on his opponent’s history of corruption (e.g. Hunter Biden’s connection to the Russian and Chinese governments who gave his son millions of dollars during Obama’s second term of office) making his verbal punches count while seizing on any of his opponent’s gaffes while reminding voters that he is the one to make America great again.
Gemini is on the Descendant of the horary figure, therefore Mercury rules the 7th House. Mercury is strongly placed in the 10th House (Biden is the odds-makers favorite to win the debate), but lacking essential dignity being peregrine testimonies that show a weak and overrated political opponent who is past his prime. It is clear from this horary testimony that Biden is simply not the same man he was even a year ago. As a result, expectations are not the same. Biden is the oldest man to ever run for president, running a non-traditional campaign marred by verbal gaffes and momentary meltdowns that is sometimes due to confusion or not really knowing what he is saying, who has never been an effective campaigner, outside of his home state of Delaware.
Mercury will oppose Uranus indicating that although Biden – a former two-term vice president, who spent 3½ decades in the U.S. Senate – may bring decades of political experience to the debate, he will be anxious about having to demonstrate that he can stand on the debate stage and aggressively meet Trump head-on while effectively pushing back without stumbling or making a major gaffe that could derail his campaign.
Transiting Mars will be in an exact square with Saturn showing that the general tenor of the debate will be replete with aggressive political posturing and slander, sharp disagreements resulting in rash heated words, and rude and unsubtle delivery, with a tendency to prosecute matters to score political points with voters. Therefore it is likely Trump’s strategy is to enter the debate with the expressed objective of rattling rattle Biden, and will likely focus on the legitimate and relevant subject most likely to trigger “good ole Joe” — Hunter Biden
The Moon – the voters, lacks essential dignity and is in close conjunction with Neptune before it makes her last aspect to Saturn, indicating that this debate is not about pleasing either candidate’s voter base, but targeting the remaining undecided swing voters. For there are very few people who voted for Trump in 2016 who would now change their minds and the same goes for those who have decided to vote for Biden. The goal will be to attract those Obama voters that voted for Trump in 2016 or a third-party candidate (instead of Hillary) who are still yet to decide between Trump and Biden in November.
Conclusion: The President will effectively neutralize Biden’s strategy of portraying Trump as a petty dictator tax evader that betrayed the American people’s trust in the handling of the government COVID-19 response, while painting both Biden as too old and feeble-minded, while constantly being on the offense (e.g. forcing Biden to disavow the chaos on the streets, throwing the “peaceful transfer of power” question back on the Obama-Biden administration that spied on President Trump’s campaign and tried to destroy his presidency, to being wrong on nearly every major foreign policy item of his career) while reassuring voters that the country will be safer in his hands.