ASTROLOGY AND POLITICS: 2018 U.S. MIDTERM ELECTION PREDICTIONS

results-graph-2018-midterm-closely-contested-elections

Accuracy Track Record for the Closely Contested Senate and House Races of the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election on November 6, 2018:

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver PredictIt William Stickevers, Political Contest Horary Team
89% correct 87% correct 81% correct
121 projections 91 projections 121 projections
108 correct  79 correct  98 correct 
13 incorrect red-x 12 incorrect red-x 23 incorrect red-x

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability*
and the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election

Updated November 6, 2018 at 9:10am PST

Overview

This page lists the predictions for the party to control the Senate and House after the 2018 U.S. Midterm Election, as well as predictions for the outcome of the Closely Contested District and State Elections for House and Senate seats from:

  • Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight (Senate | House)
  • PredictIt (Senate | House)
  • CNN Politics
  • Politico
  • Real Clear Politics (Senate | House)
  • Political Contest Horary AstroProbabiliy generated by a team of political contest horary astrologers led by mundane astrologer William Stickevers

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability*

Each horary question will be focused on a specific race, as well as control of the Senate and House of Representatives.

This page will be updated every week leading up to the November 6th Midterm Election.

*AstroProbability: a composite set of mundane astrology forecasting methods.
Margin of Error is +/- 1.9% with a 95% level of confidence.

Political Contest Horary AstroProbability Accuracy Track Record 2008-2016:

416 predictions / 358 correct = 86% Accuracy Track Record

Political Contest Horary Dream Team led by William Stickevers:

  • Joyce Lambert (2016, 2018)
  • Justine M. Rowinski (2016, 2018)
  • Norma Jean Ream (2018)
  • Alan L. Lin (2018)
  • Jerry Ketel (2018)
  • Michael Jameson (2018)
  • Maureen Higdon (2018)

Read about the Political Contest Horary Dream Team Astrologers.


Senate

AstroProbability Projection for the November 6th 2018 U.S. Midterm Election

Senate Control

51 Seats Needed for Majority

as of November 5, 2018:
Record of the Previous Senate Projections here

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Sep 12
Senate Control US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
83.2% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
87% 
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75% 

Senate – Closely Contested Elections

as of November 5, 2018:
Record of the Previous Senate Projections here

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability

Arizona (AZ)
Sinema-D vs McSally-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
60.9%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
57% red-x
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52% red-x
Florida (FL)
Nelson*-D vs Scott-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
70.8% red-x
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
58% red-x
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52%
Indiana (IN)
Donnelly*-D vs Braun-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
70.8% red-x
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
52% red-x
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51% 
Minnesota (MN) – Special Election
Smith*-D vs Housley-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
91.2% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
87% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
50% 
Mississippi (MS) – Special Election
Espy-D vs Hyde-Smith*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
87.9%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
83%
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60%
Missouri (MO)
McCaskill*-D vs Hawley-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
57.0% red-x
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
59% 
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51% 
Montana (MT)
Tester*-D vs Rosendale-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
78.8%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
63%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
64%
Nebraska (NE)
Raybould-D vs Fischer*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
97.9% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
97% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85% 
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Horary – AstroProbability
Nevada (NV)
Rosen-D vs Heller*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
55.7% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
63% 
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51% red-x
New Jersey (NJ)
Menendez*-D vs Hugin-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
94.5% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
83% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
55% 
North Dakota (ND)
Heitkamp*-D vs Cramer-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
74.1% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
50% 
Ohio (OH)
Brown*-D vs Renacci-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
96.8% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
90% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
85% 
Pennsylvania (PA)
Casey*-D vs Barletta-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
96.8% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
96% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
90% 
Tennessee (TN)
Bredesen-D vs Blackburn-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80.3% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
83% 
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60% 
Texas (TX)
O’Rourke-D vs Cruz*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
77.4% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
78% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
56% 
West Virginia (WV)
Manchin*-D vs Morrisey-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
87.6% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
76% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
58% 
Wisconsin (WI)
Baldwin*-D vs Vukmir-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
97.7% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
92% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
58% 

Record of the Previous Senate Projections here.



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House of Representatives

AstroProbability Projection for the November 6th 2018 U.S. Midterm Election

House Control

218 Seats Needed for Majority Control

as of November 6, 2018 at 9:10am PST:
Record of the Previous House Projections here

Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
House Control US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
88.0% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
74% 
n/a US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
n/a US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
51% red-x

House of Representatives – Closely Contested Elections

as of November 6, 2018 at 9:10am PST:
Record of the Previous House Projections here

State, District
*incumbent
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Political Contest Horary AstroProbability
as of Nov 1
Alaska (AK), At Large
Galvin-D vs Young-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
65.8% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
74% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80% 
Arizona (AZ), 1st
O’Halleran*-D vs Rogers-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
89.1% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
80% 
Arizona (AZ), 2nd
Kirkpatrick-D vs Peterson-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
96.6% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
98% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
90% 
Arizona (AZ), 6th
Malik-D vs Schweikert-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
90.8% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
90% 
Arizona (AZ), 8th
Tipirneni-D vs Lesko*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
77.4% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80% 
Arkansas (AR), 2nd
Tucker-D vs Hill*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85.9% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
70% 
California (CA), 4th
Morse-D vs McClintock*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
84.8% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85% 
California (CA), 10th
Harder-D vs Denham*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
77.7%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
60%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
52%
California (CA), 21st
Cox-D vs Valadao*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
79.1% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
82% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75% 
California (CA), 22nd
Janz-D vs Nunes*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
95.4% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
88% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
60% 
California (CA), 24th
Carbajal*-D vs Fareed-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
98.4% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
85% 
California (CA), 25th
Hill-D vs Knight*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
64.0%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
51%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52% red-x
California (CA), 39th
Cisneros-D vs Kim-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
58.3%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
54%
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52% red-x
California (CA), 45th
Porter-D vs Walters*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
62.7%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
62%
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
50/50 US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
52%
California (CA), 48th
Rouda-D vs Rohrabacher*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
56.5%
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
49%
50/50 50/50 50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
52% red-x
California (CA), 49th
Levin-D vs Harkey-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
96.0% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
88% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
50% 
California (CA), 50th
Campa-Najjar-D vs Hunter*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
77.9% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
78% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80% 
Five Thirty Eight, Nate Silver
PredictIt CNN Politics
Politico
Real Clear Politics
Horary AstroProbability
Colorado (CO), 3rd
Bush-D vs Tipton*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80.1% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
92% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
75% 
Colorado (CO), 6th
Crow-D vs Coffman*-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
88.6% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
82% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Lean
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
60% 
Connecticut (CT), 5th
Hayes-D vs Santos-R
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
97.5% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
98% 
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
Likely
US_Democratic_Party_LogoDEM
60% 
Florida (FL), 6th
Soderberg-D vs Waltz-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
74.0% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
65% 
Florida (FL), 15th
Carlson-D vs Spano-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
57.5% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
70% 
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
50/50 US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
55% 
Florida (FL), 16th
Shapiro-D vs Buchanan*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
85.9% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
80% 
Florida (FL), 18th
Baer-D vs Mast*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
91.2% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Lean
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
65% 
Florida (FL), 25th
Flores-D vs Diaz-Balart*-R
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
72.3% 
US_Republican_Party_LogoREP
Likely