Astrology and Politics: U.S. Presidential Election Predictions 2016 – Primaries
Click here for
2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Predictions
Track Record for 99 elections D+R as of June 15, 2016:
| FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers |
| 89% correct | 88% correct | 88% correct | 87% correct |
| 57 projections | 97 projections | 42 projections | 98 projections |
(Complete Accuracy Track Record here)
Winning Projections
*AstroProbability: a composite set of mundane astrology forecasting methods.
as of June 6, 2016:
July 18-21 |
FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16) |
| Republican National Convention | Trump 92% | n/a | Trump 85% |
July 25-28 |
FiveThirtyEight | PredictIt | Political Prediction Market (CNN) | William Stickevers’ AstroProbability* (4/29/16) |
| Democratic National Convention | Clinton 92% | Clinton 97% | Clinton 95% |
(Previous Projections Accuracy Track Record here)
Delegate Count
DEMOCRATIC DELEGATE ESTIMATE (as of June 15, 2016)
from www.cnn.com/election/primaries/parties/democrat
REPUBLICAN DELEGATE ESTIMATE (as of June 15, 2016)
from www.cnn.com/election/primaries/parties/republican
Popular Vote
from Real Clear Politics Dem Rep
as of June 10, 2016
Clinton: 15,805,136
Trump: 13,300,472
Sanders: 12,029,669
(Complete Vote Count by State here)
PREDICTIONS
GOP Candidates
Donald Trump – I predict he will win the GOP nomination for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election.
Prediction: (January 26, 2016)
Based on the horary testimonies, it is highly probable that Trump will win both Iowa and New Hampshire, and then go on to win South Carolina and Nevada — as he is favored to do — and likely conceivably win every contest. (Read entire prediction post)
Real Clear Politics Poll Average –
2016 Presidential Nomination
as of May 4, 2016
- Donald Trump – 46.5%
- Ted Cruz – 27.0%
- John Kasich – 18.0%
Older polling data below
Democratic Candidates
Prediction: (April 28, 2016)
Astrological indicators based on Politcal Contest Horary snapshots of the Democratic Primary Race are now indicating Hillary Clinton’s nomination.
Sanders’ campaign has signaled to the Democratic establishment that he is looking to shape the Democratic platform at the party’s convention, but also insisting he will remain in the race until then.
Real Clear Politics Poll Average –
2016 Presidential Nomination
as of June 5, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 52.8%
- Bernie Sanders – 41.4%
Older polling data below
Las Vegas Oddsmakers –
Winning the U.S. Presidency
- Hillary Clinton – 73.53%
- Donald Trump – 25.00%
- Bernie Sanders – 2.44%
- Joe Biden – 1.96%
- Gary Johnson – 0.40%
Older betting odds below
Blog Posts on the 2016 Election
Solar Ingress 2016 and the Presidential Election [VIDEO]
(March 31, 2016)
Read blog post.
Voter Revolts, Globalization, and Uranus-Pluto [VIDEO]
(March 31, 2016)
Read blog post.
[2016 Election] Candidates, Primaries, and Super Tuesday Predictions
(March 15, 2016)
Read blog post.
For the Record…
(March 12, 2016)
Read blog post.
Super Saturday: 2016 Primary Election Projections
(March 5, 2016)
Read blog post.
Trump vs. Cruz: GOP Nomination Prediction
(January 26, 2016)
Read blog post.
30 Days to Go: Are Trump Supporters Angry Enough to Vote?
(January 2, 2016)
Read blog post.
2016 Primaries
Feb. 1
IOWA
Feb. 9
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Feb. 20
NEVADA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
SOUTH CAROLINA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Feb. 23
NEVADA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS
Feb. 27
SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
March 1
ALABAMA
ALASKA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS
ARKANSAS
COLORADO DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
GEORGIA
MASSACHUSETTS
MINNESOTA
OKLAHOMA
TENNESSEE
TEXAS
VERMONT
VIRGINIA
March 5
KANSAS
KENTUCKY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
LOUISIANA
MAINE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS
NEBRASKA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
March 6
MAINE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
PUERTO RICO REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
March 8
HAWAII REPUBLICAN CAUCUS
IDAHO REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
MICHIGAN
MISSISSIPPI
March 12
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA REPUBLICAN CAUCUS
GUAM REPUBLICAN CAUCUS
NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
WYOMING REPUBLICAN CAUCUS
March 15
FLORIDA
ILLINOIS
MISSOURI
NORTH CAROLINA
OHIO
March 22
ARIZONA
IDAHO DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
UTAH
March 26
ALASKA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
HAWAII DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
WASHINGTON DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
April 5
WISCONSIN
April 9
WYOMING DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
April 19
NEW YORK
April 26
CONNECTICUT
DELAWARE
MARYLAND
PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
May 3
INDIANA
May 10
NEBRASKA REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
WEST VIRGINIA
May 17
KENTUCKY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
OREGON
May 24
WASHINGTON REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
June 7
CALIFORNIA
MONTANA
NEW JERSEY
NEW MEXICO
NORTH DAKOTA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
SOUTH DAKOTA
June 14
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS
July 18-21
Republican National Convention
July 25-28
Democratic National Convention
November 8
U.S. Presidential Election
PAST POLLING DATA AND ODDS
GOP Candidates
as of May 4, 2016
- Donald Trump – 46.5%
- Ted Cruz – 27.0%
- John Kasich – 18.0%
as of May 2, 2016
- Donald Trump – 45.4%
- Ted Cruz – 29.0%
- John Kasich – 20.2%
as of April 27, 2016
- Donald Trump – 43.0%
- Ted Cruz – 30.0%
- John Kasich – 21.0%
as of April 17, 2016
- Donald Trump – 40.3%
- Ted Cruz – 31.3%
- John Kasich – 21.5%
as of April 13, 2016
- Donald Trump – 40.4%
- Ted Cruz – 30.6%
- John Kasich – 21.0%
as of April 6, 2016
- Donald Trump – 39.9%
- Ted Cruz – 32.9%
- John Kasich – 20.9%
as of March 30, 2016
- Donald Trump – 42.1%
- Ted Cruz – 31.7%
- John Kasich – 19.3%
as of March 22, 2016
- Donald Trump – 43.0%
- Ted Cruz – 30.3%
- John Kasich – 19.1%
as of March 17, 2016
- Donald Trump – 35.7%
- Ted Cruz – 26.7%
- John Kasich – 18.7%
as of March 8, 2016
- Donald Trump – 36.0%
- Ted Cruz – 21.8%
- Marco Rubio – 18.0%
- John Kasich – 12.0%
as of March 6, 2016
- Donald Trump – 37.5%
- Ted Cruz – 19.3%
- Marco Rubio – 18.3%
- John Kasich – 9.5%
- Ben Carson – 8.7%
as of February 28, 2016
- Donald Trump – 35.6%
- Ted Cruz – 19.8%
- Marco Rubio – 17.4%
- Ben Carson – 9.0%
- John Kasich – 8.8%
as of February 24, 2016
- Donald Trump – 33.2%
- Ted Cruz – 20.3%
- Marco Rubio – 16.7%
- John Kasich – 9.3%
- Ben Carson – 7.5%
- Jeb Bush – 5.8%
as of February 22, 2016
- Donald Trump – 33.6%
- Ted Cruz – 20.4%
- Marco Rubio – 16.4%
- John Kasich – 9.8%
- Ben Carson – 7.4%
- Jeb Bush – 5.8%
as of February 17, 2016
- Donald Trump – 33.8%
- Ted Cruz – 21.0%
- Marco Rubio – 16.3%
- John Kasich – 8.8%
- Ben Carson – 6.0%
- Jeb Bush – 4.5%
as of February 12, 2016
- Donald Trump – 29.0%
- Ted Cruz – 21.0%
- Marco Rubio – 20.3%
- Ben Carson – 7.3%
- John Kasich – 4.7%
- Jeb Bush – 4.0%
- Chris Christie – 3.0%
- Carly Fiorina – 2.7%
as of February 6, 2016
- Donald Trump – 29.5%
- Ted Cruz – 21.0%
- Marco Rubio – 17.8%
- Ben Carson – 7.8%
- Jeb Bush – 4.5%
- John Kasich – 4.0%
- Chris Christie – 2.5%
- Carly Fiorina – 2.5%
as of February 4, 2016
- Donald Trump – 33.2%
- Ted Cruz – 20.7%
- Marco Rubio – 13.3%
- Ben Carson – 7.8%
- Jeb Bush – 4.5%
- Chris Christie – 3.0%
- Rand Paul – 3.0%
- John Kasich – 2.8%
- Mike Huckabee – 2.0%
- Carly Fiorina – 2.2%
- Rick Santorum – 0.2%
as of January 29, 2016
- Donald Trump – 35.8%
- Ted Cruz – 19.6%
- Marco Rubio – 10.2%
- Ben Carson – 7.6%
- Jeb Bush – 4.8%
- Chris Christie – 3.0%
- Rand Paul – 2.4%
- John Kasich – 2.4%
- Mike Huckabee – 2.2%
- Carly Fiorina – 1.8%
- Rick Santorum – 0.4%
Democratic Candidates
as of May 31, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 53.3%
- Bernie Sanders – 42.5%
as of May 23, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 52.0%
- Bernie Sanders – 43.4%
as of May 21, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 51.4%
- Bernie Sanders – 43.4%
as of May 4, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 50.3%
- Bernie Sanders – 44.5%
as of May 1, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 49.7%
- Bernie Sanders – 44.8%
as of April 24, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 49.5%
- Bernie Sanders – 45.8%
as of April 17, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 47.7%
- Bernie Sanders – 46.3%
as of April 13, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 47.2%
- Bernie Sanders – 46.0%
as of April 9, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 46.8%
- Bernie Sanders – 45.8%
as of April 6, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 49.1%
- Bernie Sanders – 44.3%
as of March 30, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 51.0%
- Bernie Sanders – 42.4%
as of March 23, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 51.5%
- Bernie Sanders – 42.5%
as of March 20, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 50.8%
- Bernie Sanders – 43.8%
as of March 7, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 51.0%
- Bernie Sanders – 39.6%
as of February 28, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 49.6%
- Bernie Sanders – 40.0%
as of February 24, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 47.2%
- Bernie Sanders – 42.2%
as of February 16, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 49.3%
- Bernie Sanders – 36.5%
as of February 12, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 49.0%
- Bernie Sanders – 35.3%
as of February 18, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 50%
- Donald Trump – 20%
- Marco Rubio – 11.11%
- Bernie Sanders – 11.11%
- Ted Cruz – 4.76%
as of February 13, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 50%
- Donald Trump – 20%
- Bernie Sanders – 11.76%
- Marco Rubio – 10%
- Ted Cruz – 5.88%
as of February 6, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 49.3%
- Bernie Sanders – 36.0%
as of February 4, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 50.5%
- Bernie Sanders – 37.2%
- Martin O’Malley – 2.3%
as of January 29, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 51.6%
- Bernie Sanders – 37.2%
- Martin O’Malley – 2.2%
Las Vegas Oddsmakers – Winning the U.S. Presidency
as of June 8, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 73.53%
- Donald Trump – 28.57%
- Bernie Sanders – 2.44%
- Joe Biden – 1.96%
- Paul Ryan – 0.50%
as of June 6, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 69.44%
- Donald Trump – 29.41%
- Bernie Sanders – 4.76%
- Joe Biden – 2.44%
- Paul Ryan – 0.50%
as of May 25, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 62.5%
- Donald Trump – 33.33%
- Bernie Sanders – 3.85%
- Joe Biden – 2.44%
- Paul Ryan – 0.66%
as of May 18, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 69.44%
- Donald Trump – 28.57%
- Bernie Sanders – 3.85%
- Joe Biden – 1.49%
- Paul Ryan – 0.66%
as of May 6, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 72.46%
- Donald Trump – 26.67%
- Bernie Sanders – 2.94%
- Joe Biden – 1.23%
- John Kasich – 0.99%
as of May 6, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 71.43%
- Donald Trump – 28.57%
- Bernie Sanders – 2.44%
- Joe Biden – 0.99%
- John Kasich – 0.99%
as of May 3, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 72.46%
- Donald Trump – 30.77%
- Ted Cruz – 2.94%
- Bernie Sanders – 2.44%
- Joe Biden – 0.99%
as of April 27, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 75.18%
- Donald Trump – 20.00%
- Ted Cruz – 3.45%
- Bernie Sanders – 2.44%
- John Kasich – 0.99%
as of April 20, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 71.43%
- Donald Trump – 18.18%
- Ted Cruz – 5.26%
- Bernie Sanders – 2.94%
- John Kasich – 2.44%
as of April 15, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 66.67%
- Donald Trump – 14.29%
- Ted Cruz – 7.69%
- Bernie Sanders – 6.67%
- John Kasich – 2.94%
as of April 7, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 65.36%
- Donald Trump – 12.5%
- Bernie Sanders – 10.00%
- Ted Cruz – 7.69%
- John Kasich – 3.45%
as of April 2, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 68.03%
- Donald Trump – 16.67%
- Bernie Sanders – 7.69%
- Ted Cruz – 4.76%
- John Kasich – 4.35%
as of March 28, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 68.97%
- Donald Trump – 25.00%
- Bernie Sanders – 6.67%
- Ted Cruz – 3.03%
- John Kasich – 2.44%
as of March 21, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 65.36%
- Donald Trump – 23.81%
- John Kasich – 3.85%
- Bernie Sanders – 3.23%
- Ted Cruz – 2.94%
as of March 13, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 69.44%
- Donald Trump – 23.09%
- Bernie Sanders – 7.69%
- Ted Cruz – 3.85%
- John Kasich – 2.94%
as of March 9, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 65.36%
- Donald Trump – 22.22%
- Bernie Sanders – 6.66%
- Ted Cruz – 4.76%
- John Kasich – 3.23%
as of March 8, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 66.66%
- Donald Trump – 22.22%
- Ted Cruz – 4.76%
- Bernie Sanders – 4.35
- John Kasich – 3.23%
as of March 5, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 65.36%
- Donald Trump – 23.09%
- Marco Rubio – 5.88%
- Bernie Sanders – 3.85%
- Ted Cruz – 2.44%
as of March 2, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 63.69%
- Donald Trump – 30.77%
- Marco Rubio – 5.26%
- Bernie Sanders – 3.45%
- Ted Cruz – 1.96%
as of February 27, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 57.80%
- Donald Trump – 25.00%
- Marco Rubio – 11.11%
- Bernie Sanders – 3.85%
- Michael Bloomberg – 1.49%
as of February 24, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 54.64%
- Donald Trump – 23.53%
- Marco Rubio – 13.33%
- Bernie Sanders – 6.67%
- Michael Bloomberg – 1.96%
as of February 23, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 54.64%
- Donald Trump – 22.22%
- Marco Rubio – 18.18%
- Bernie Sanders – 6.67%
- Michael Bloomberg – 2.44%
as of February 21, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 52.36%
- Marco Rubio – 18.18%
- Donald Trump – 18.18%
- Bernie Sanders – 9.09%
- Ted Cruz – 2.44%
as of February 10, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 50%
- Donald Trump – 18.18%
- Bernie Sanders – 11.76%
- Marco Rubio – 11.11%
- Ted Cruz – 5.88%
as of February 8, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 52.36%
- Marco Rubio – 22.22%
- Donald Trump – 12.5%
- Bernie Sanders – 9.09%
- Ted Cruz – 4.76%
as of February 5, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 52.36%
- Marco Rubio – 26.67%
- Donald Trump – 11.11%
- Bernie Sanders – 11.11%
- Ted Cruz – 5.88%
as of February 3, 2016
- Hillary Clinton – 52.36%
- Marco Rubio – 25%
- Donald Trump – 11.76%
- Bernie Sanders – 11.11%
- Ted Cruz – 5.88%
as of February 2, 2016
- Donald Trump NOT to be GOP nominee – 80%
- Hillary Clinton – 52.36%
- Hillary Clinton NOT to win 2016 Presidential Election – 50%
- Marco Rubio – 25%
- Bloomberg to announce run for President – 25%
as of January 31, 2015
- Hillary Clinton – 54.05%
- Donald Trump – 23.09%
- Marco Rubio – 11.76%
- Bernie Sanders – 11.11%
- Jeb Bush – 3.85%
WILLIAM STICKEVERS 
William, you missed Oregon. May 17th for both parties.
LikeLike
Noted!
Thank you,
William
LikeLike
Pingback: Super Saturday: 2016 Primary Election Projections | WILLIAM STICKEVERS
Pingback: Still Underestimating Donald Trump? | WILLIAM STICKEVERS